Something to Ponder

[BearLandBucFan]

I know its been expressed that we would possibly like to trade DOWN in this years draft but to be honest... this year is a bit weak beyond the top echelon of talent. Since we have 2 Second Rounder (one of which will be pretty high), why not try down to high 20's and grab a 2007 1st Rounder. We probably will finish higher than #7... more like 2-4 in slotting. At that position, there could be a CJ, a Quinn, and Adams, or a Thomas... etc....

I know Jax could use possibly both a future QB or WR same with KC... San Diego might do it to grab a CJ like receiver to push them over the top of the AFC rivals.

Just something to chew on.

[DeadEagle]

Trades are always hard to predict. Far too many intagibles to weigh against one another.


All those possibilities you just laid out are....... possible. Any extra draft picks we can land is bonus for us, and I'd be willing to swing trades...... but the major factor is finding the right dancing partner and having "their guy" available at our slot.

[BucFan LHT]

as long as its not one of the last 5 picks in the first, id be all for it.

[UMiamiBucFan]

I'm not sure that a #20 and a 2007 1st rounder would be worth a top 5 pick. Remember, when the Giants traded for Eli, they essentially traded the #4, 2005 1st rounder, and a 3rd rounder for the #1 overall. So, if we are in the #2-4 range, I would imagine trading down only to around #10-15 and picking up a 2007 1st rounder.

Remember, the standard for future draft picks: a second round pick this year is worth next years first round pick.

[BearLandBucFan]

I'm not sure that a #20 and a 2007 1st rounder would be worth a top 5 pick. Remember, when the Giants traded for Eli, they essentially traded the #4, 2005 1st rounder, and a 3rd rounder for the #1 overall. So, if we are in the #2-4 range, I would imagine trading down only to around #10-15 and picking up a 2007 1st rounder.

Remember, the standard for future draft picks: a second round pick this year is worth next years first round pick.


no... they have absolutely the same value or relatively close to it... people use different scales to determine that... for all intensive purposes... most teams... stay close to where they picked the year prior... ala Cardinals... Lions... Browns... Colts... Seahawks...

what u hope for is that you NAIL a #2 from a previous #22 team... cough... cough... the BUCS... and you dread the opposite... so for all intensive purposes most teams double the value of the current year pick...

So for say a #21 you could possibly squeak in a 3rd Rounder in the deal

[caddy&clayton]

Do you guys like the idea of trading BK and Rice for two more second rounders and spending them all on D? Probably won't happen, but think how much it will help.

[BearLandBucFan]

Do you guys like the idea of trading BK and Rice for two more second rounders and spending them all on D? Probably won't happen, but think how much it will help.

Rice isn't worth anything and BK is worth a low 3rd... more like a high 4th Rounder

In 1995 of our 7 of our 8 picks were on defense... Only 2 became starters... Sapp and Brooks...

ever heard of these guys?

Melvin Johnson, Jerry Wilson, Clifton Abraham, Wardell Rouse, and Jeff Rodgers?????

Those were the other 5 defensive draftees... I remember them all but Rouse... they STUNK

7 defensive picks... and 2 hit gold... how many picks in a 3 year span following 1995 Draft... the supposed GOLD MINE for us??

15 in 3 years from 2006 to 2008...

how many started? 7? started consistently for more than 2 years? 3 Abraham... Kelly... Barber

were ON the Super Bowl team? 3... Barber... Kelly... Singleton

So out of 4 years.... probably the core 4 years of initial talent... we drafted 23 defensive players... of which only 9 ever started.... of which only 5 were even ON (not starting) our 2002 Super Bowl Team

out of those 5.. only Brooks.. Sapp and Kelly were Round 1 or 2 Picks...

you get a diamond in the rough every once in awhile


going hog while on defense this year in the draft and free agency is guaranteeing ANYTHING

we need to be smart on how we build this team... and stop looking at it blindly as offense vs defense.

[UMiamiBucFan]

no... they have absolutely the same value or relatively close to it... people use different scales to determine that... for all intensive purposes... most teams... stay close to where they picked the year prior... ala Cardinals... Lions... Browns... Colts... Seahawks...

what u hope for is that you NAIL a #2 from a previous #22 team... cough... cough... the BUCS... and you dread the opposite... so for all intensive purposes most teams double the value of the current year pick...

So for say a #21 you could possibly squeak in a 3rd Rounder in the deal
I disagree. In 2004, the Bills used their #13 pick for Lee Evans, but then when the Dallas Cowboys pick rolled around at #22, they wanted to trade up for QB J.P. Losman. Here is the trade (with their draft value numbers in parenthesis):

Bills get: 2004 1st round, pick 22 (780)

Cowboys get: 2004 2nd round, pick 11 (470 ); 2004 5th round, pick 12 (36); 2005 1st round pick

The Cowboys traded down 21 spots from #22 to #43 and it netted them a first rounder in the following year. So if you assume that this was a fair trade, that means a 2005 1st round pick is worth 274 pts. That value is closest to a late 2004 2nd round pick (pick #31). The Bills probably overpaid, but that still proves the theory that they believe a 2005 1st round pick is worth a 2004 2nd round pick.

Now, lets look at the draft pick values for your proposed trade. Lets say the Bucs pick is #5, on the low end of your estimate. That pick is worth 1,700 pts. The #21 pick, the high end of your estimate, is worth 800 pts. That means that trading team would have to make up 900 pts to make it a fair trade. Even if you give next year's draft pick fair value with this year's pick, they'd still have to the #18 pick (900 pts) for it to be even. So if the team you're trading with winds up with a lower draft pick than that, you drew the short end of the stick. And considering the fact that you just gave a team with a good record a top 5 pick, I would wager the opportunities are high for them to have another good record.

Lets assume a team gives a next year first round draft selection a value of 420 pts (2nd round, pick 16). To get the #5 overall pick (1,700 pts), it would cost the other team the #11 pick (1,250 pts) and next years first rounder to even come close. Even if the team assigns the next year first round draft selection a value of 590 (1st round, pick #32), that still leaves you in the #10-15 range. Anything less is just plain gambling.

NFL teams don't like to gamble with draft picks.


Note: I used the draft value chart at http://www.theredzone.org/2006/draft/draftvaluechart.asp

[BearLandBucFan]

I disagree. In 2004, the Bills used their #13 pick for Lee Evans, but then when the Dallas Cowboys pick rolled around at #22, they wanted to trade up for QB J.P. Losman. Here is the trade (with their draft value numbers in parenthesis):

Bills get: 2004 1st round, pick 22 (780)

Cowboys get: 2004 2nd round, pick 11 (470 ); 2004 5th round, pick 12 (36); 2005 1st round pick

The Cowboys traded down 21 spots from #22 to #43 and it netted them a first rounder in the following year. So if you assume that this was a fair trade, that means a 2005 1st round pick is worth 274 pts. That value is closest to a late 2004 2nd round pick (pick #31). The Bills probably overpaid, but that still proves the theory that they believe a 2005 1st round pick is worth a 2004 2nd round pick.

Now, lets look at the draft pick values for your proposed trade. Lets say the Bucs pick is #5, on the low end of your estimate. That pick is worth 1,700 pts. The #21 pick, the high end of your estimate, is worth 800 pts. That means that trading team would have to make up 900 pts to make it a fair trade. Even if you give next year's draft pick fair value with this year's pick, they'd still have to the #18 pick (900 pts) for it to be even. So if the team you're trading with winds up with a lower draft pick than that, you drew the short end of the stick. And considering the fact that you just gave a team with a good record a top 5 pick, I would wager the opportunities are high for them to have another good record.

Lets assume a team gives a next year first round draft selection a value of 420 pts (2nd round, pick 16). To get the #5 overall pick (1,700 pts), it would cost the other team the #11 pick (1,250 pts) and next years first rounder to even come close. Even if the team assigns the next year first round draft selection a value of 590 (1st round, pick #32), that still leaves you in the #10-15 range. Anything less is just plain gambling.

NFL teams don't like to gamble with draft picks.


Note: I used the draft value chart at http://www.theredzone.org/2006/draft/draftvaluechart.asp


by your theory then a 2009 First Round Pick, which yes can be traded, would be worth only a third round pick.

Again... it's what you are willing to give up... almost ALWAYS does the person trade up give up more to move up

that's why it is so difficult to go into a draft with the " we will defiitely trade down" philosophy....

you can't approach another team as a buyer of more picks... you have to let them come to you as a seller...

did you know most daft day trades are actually discussed between teams weeks... maybe months before the draft? and almost every team has anywhere from 3 to 12 trade potentials aligned before the first pick is even made? almost all of these are seller deals... i.e. a team has contacted them to move up... 15 minutes might seem forever for us waiting... but I can imagine it seems more like 2 minutes to them...

they never come to fluition as different scenarios negate the necessity to put them into play

so it's not really simple math

I think we fundamentally agree on most of this aspect... you are just more of the optimist that hopes we sell HIGH!

I LIKE THAT...

:D