Tampabay012286's 1st Round Mock Draft v2.0

[TampaBay012286]

Updated my mock draft from last week, and threw a bunch of trades in just for fun... 8 more days to go till all these mocks mean absolutely nothing! :cool:

1) Miami Dolphins-Jake Long-they will sit at #1 and draft the best LT available to protect John Beck
2) St Louis Rams-Chris Long-he would pair with Adam Carriker to help form the basis of a solid front 7
3) Atlanta Falcons-Glenn Dorsey-he could possibly be Warren Sapp 2.0 if he is indeed healthy
4) Oakland Raiders-Darren McFadden-JaMarcus Russell could use an elite player in the running game to help him out
5) New Orleans Saints (*projected trade with Chiefs)-Sedrick Ellis-they trade up to solidify the defensive line
6) New York Jets-Vernon Gholston-a great player falls into their lap
7) New England Patriots (SF)-Branden Albert-if he doesnt go here, he might not go till late round 1
8) Carolina Panthers (*projected trade with Ravens)-Matt Ryan-it could be pricey, but they make the move up to land the best QB in the draft
9) Cincinnati Bengals-Keith Rivers-they sit tight and let the top LB fall to them
10) Kansas City Chiefs (*projected trade with Saints)-Ryan Clady-they trade back a few picks and still land a guy they could consider at 5
11) Buffalo Bills-Devin Thomas-Trent Edwards gets his go to guy
12) Dallas Cowboys (*projected trade with Broncos)--Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie-they make a trade to land arguably the best CB in the draft
13) Philidelphia Eagles (*projected trade with Ravens via Panthers)--Limas Sweed-they know McNabb needs more to work with
14) Chicago Bears-Rashard Mendenhall-they let Thomas Jones get away without a real replacement, but this local pick will quickly improve their offense
15) Detroit Lions-Jerod Mayo-this guy seems to be soaring up draft charts
16) Arizona Cardinals-Leodis McKelvin-with Antrell Rolle moving to safety, CB is a legit need
17) Minnesota Vikings--Derrick Harvey-this will change if they trade for Jared Allen
18) Houston Texans-Johnathan Stewart-they need a stud running back, and this could be their guy
19) Baltimore Ravens (*projected trade with Eagles)--Brian Brohm-after trading back twice, they finally land their QB of the future
20) Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Mike Jenkins-hometown player, could challenge for playing time earlier than expected
21) Washington Redskins-Chris Williams-this would be a nice pick in the eyes of Clinton Portis & Jason Campbell
22) Denver Broncos *projected trade with Cowboys via Browns)--Jeff Otah-they have a few holes on the offensive line and could fill them here
23) Pittsburgh Steelers--DeSean Jackson-Big Ben wanted a "big receiver", but this guy is a playmaker and will still be able to help them
24) Tennessee Titans-Dustin Keller- theres no WRs worth taking here, but this pick makes sense
25) Seattle Seahawks-Phillip Merling-another player to add to their defensive line rotation
26) Atlanta Falcons (*projected trade with Jaguars)-Joe Flacco-they move back up into the bottom of round 1 to select their QB of the future
27) San Diego Chargers-Dan Connor-they dont have many needs, so they go with what could be the best player available
28) Denver Broncos (*projected trade with Cowboys)--Andre Caldwell- they go for best player available at this point
29) San Francisco 49ers (IND)-Trevor Laws-this could be too high for him, but he can still have an impact
30) Oakland Raiders (*projected trade with Packers)-Lawrence Jackson-Lane Kiffin would love this pick
31) New England- *forfeited*
32) New York Giants-Sam Baker-this would allow David Deihl to slide back to guard and help protect Eli Manning

[twistedbydesign]

Sorry bro, I don't think you're trying hard enough.

[PewterInsider]

lol..

[Monty'sCircus]

I started to reply and offer creative input but gave up at pick 10...
The one that really blows my mind is a LT to the skins...

[TornadoRex]

Too many trades..I could see Atlanta wanting to move back into the first if they don't take Ryan. But if Jerry Jones is trading up, it is going to be for McFadden. And other than a few fitting into the scheme issues, there are a bunch that I could see happening. I like the Mayo pick, that would be a smart move for the Lions. Fred Davis should be before Keller though.

[TampaBay012286]

Too many trades..I could see Atlanta wanting to move back into the first if they don't take Ryan. But if Jerry Jones is trading up, it is going to be for McFadden. And other than a few fitting into the scheme issues, there are a bunch that I could see happening. I like the Mayo pick, that would be a smart move for the Lions. Fred Davis should be before Keller though.

i really wanted to make the cowboys trade up for mcfadden, but i just dont know if they will be able to find a high enough trading partner, it will be something to watch for though... all my projected trades were made strictly for fun, some could happen, and some definitely wont... i really dont know who i like as the best TE in this draft, so i honestly just picked one :cool:

[TornadoRex]

Yeah, I've seen that you are pretty high on Keller. Imagine that, eh? fastest TE and you love him hah...but I think if the Cowboys are looking for a CB, they would do well to just sit and get one in the 20s, the talent level is pretty equal across the 1st round, and they could use the other pick for a complementary back for Barber.

[TampaBay012286]

Yeah, I've seen that you are pretty high on Keller. Imagine that, eh? fastest TE and you love him hah...but I think if the Cowboys are looking for a CB, they would do well to just sit and get one in the 20s, the talent level is pretty equal across the 1st round, and they could use the other pick for a complementary back for Barber.

the running back pick could work, although in this particular scenario, i have the top 3 HBs going in the top 18 picks, so im not sure who else would be worth a 1st round pick

[#1BucsDefense]

If I didn't know how cluess the thread starter is about all things football I would assume this was a fishing thread.

[TampaBay012286]

If I didn't know how cluess the thread starter is about all things football I would assume this was a fishing thread.

all the personal comments like that really dont bother me, but for the sake of everyone else, try commenting on what was actually posted as opposed to who posted it :cool:

[h-town baller]

Gotta cut down on the trades man. Last couple of drafts has had a couple of trades in the first round. Usually these trades happen in the later or middle part of the first round. rarely ever trades in the top 5.

[TampaBay012286]

Gotta cut down on the trades man. Last couple of drafts has had a couple of trades in the first round. Usually these trades happen in the later or middle part of the first round. rarely ever trades in the top 5.

just trying to keep it interesting :cool:

[#1BucsDefense]

all the personal comments like that really dont bother me, but for the sake of everyone else, try commenting on what was actually posted as opposed to who posted it :cool:

Ok, where to begin.

First of all, there would never be that many trades, I guarantee it.

If Matt Ryan is available when the Ravens pick, they'll grab him without thinking twice, not trade down. And the Panthers still have Delhomme, and while they might draft a QB, they won't trade up for one.

The Bears have a TON of needs before RB, Cedric Benson is still serviceable, and they need a QB, and lots of help on the offensive line.

The Redskins won't take an OT in the first round, they just won't.

The Steelers are looking for a big receiver, you even said it yourself, and that's not DeSean.

The Titans NEED a WR, and Malcom Kelly, James Hardy, even Manningham are guys they would more likely take than a TE that isn't a 1st round projection anyways.

The Seahawks aren't going to take a DE in the 1st round.

The Falcons wouldn't trade up for a guy that will most likely be available when they pick early in the 2nd round.

I'm a Gator fan, but since when has Andre Caldwell become a better WR prospect than Kelly, Hardy, Manningham, and a lot of other players making him the BPA at that point?

You have the 49ers reaching for a player that isn't even one of their top position needs.


And those were just the obvious problems. Really, once you made that many trades you completely screwed up any chance of your mock draft being even remotely accurate. You know what's more interesting than lots of trades? A well thought out, well explained mock draft. There's nothing wrong with not knowing how to make a good mock draft, there is something wrong with not knowing how to, and then making multiple mock drafts anyways.

[JamesWilder32]

You don't project trades that haven't even been discuessed. It's a freaking cop-out. Just line them up and do your mock. As far as I can tell the only trade being discussed is Chiefs/Vikings.

[G.h.o.s.t!]

The entire thing looks like something out of madden... nothing realistic

[TampaBay012286]

The entire thing looks like something out of madden... nothing realistic

most mock drafts r unrealistic to a degree, especially with the possibility of teams making a suprise pick or trading at the last minute... id be perfectly happy if i could guess 10 first round picks (roughly 1/3) correctly, although i did state in the opening line of my post that i put alot of trades in this mock for fun, this is nothing at all like a video game

[G.h.o.s.t!]

most mock drafts r unrealistic to a degree, especially with the possibility of teams making a suprise pick or trading at the last minute... id be perfectly happy if i could guess 10 first round picks (roughly 1/3) correctly, although i did state in the opening line of my post that i put alot of trades in this mock for fun, this is nothing at all like a video game

most mock drafts r unrealistic to a degree

None I've seen had 10 1st round team trades...:cool: which isn't unrealistic, just video game(ish)!

[TampaBay012286]

None I've seen had 15 1st round team trades...:cool:

i know it looks funny on paper, but theres only a total of 6 trades in this mock

[G.h.o.s.t!]

Why would the Ravens trade away matt ryan when they need a QB badly?

[TampaBay012286]

Why would the Ravens trade away matt ryan when they need a QB badly?

in that situation, it wouldnt be so much as the ravens wanting to trade him away, but maybe carolina wants him so they give up an offer too good to refuse so they can move up

[G.h.o.s.t!]

in that situation, it wouldnt be so much as the ravens wanting to trade him away, but maybe carolina wants him so they give up an offer too good to refuse so they can move up

The Ravens are similar to us(poor offensive coaching with no future QB) ... a very good "D". There QB position is in turmoil... they have a chance at a (#1 ranked) franchise QB at the 8th spot and you think a team could offer them something to not draft the guy...:cool: Do you understand the economic impact of drafting a "Franchise Quarterback" for an organization, especially with a defense that is championship caliber? The media publicity, marketing campaigns etc..etc..etc..

Oh guess you didn't take that into consideration.

[TampaBay012286]

The Ravens are similar to us ... a very good "D". There QB position is in turmoil... they have a chance at a (#1 ranked) franchise QB at the 8th spot and you think a team could offer them something to not draft the guy...:cool: Do you understand the economic impact of drafting a "Franchise Quarterback" for an organization, especially with a defense that is championship caliber? The media publicity, marketing campaigns etc..etc..etc..

the draft is a week from today, lets see how it plays out then :cool:

[JamesWilder32]

Why would the Ravens trade away matt ryan when they need a QB badly?

Because no matter how good Ryan may or may not be he is still 3 years away from being a good NFL QB that can win games for his team. Most teams want to win now and don't want to wait 3 years or more for a QB to develop.

[uscbucsfan]

the Ravens WILL NOT pass on Matt Ryan....no way, I'm not sure he makes it past Atlanta, but if he does....the Ravens will grab him

[#1BucsDefense]

Because no matter how good Ryan may or may not be he is still 3 years away from being a good NFL QB that can win games for his team. Most teams want to win now and don't want to wait 3 years or more for a QB to develop.

What other options do the Ravens have? Troy Smith? Kyle Boller? Not like there's any FA QB that'll do better. It make take 3 years before Ryan reaches his full potential, but they don't need him to be great right away, with their defense he only needs to manage the game for now. If Ryan is available when the Ravens pick there is no way they pass on him.

[h-town baller]

Because no matter how good Ryan may or may not be he is still 3 years away from being a good NFL QB that can win games for his team. Most teams want to win now and don't want to wait 3 years or more for a QB to develop.

Its a rare case for a rookie QB to come in and start and win now. Every team wants to win now. Most likely every team with a rookie Qb will have to sit out for the first couple of years and when they do start they have to go through the growing pains of the rookie.

[JamesWilder32]

What other options do the Ravens have? Troy Smith? Kyle Boller? Not like there's any FA QB that'll do better. It make take 3 years before Ryan reaches his full potential, but they don't need him to be great right away, with their defense he only needs to manage the game for now. If Ryan is available when the Ravens pick there is no way they pass on him.
And yet Kyle Boller would still be 200% better at managing the game because... hmmmm... I don't know... maybe because he's not a ROOKIE!

[JamesWilder32]

20) Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Mike Jenkins-hometown player, could challenge for playing time earlier than expected
21) Washington Redskins-Chris Williams-this would be a nice pick in the eyes of Clinton Portis & Jason Campbell
22) Denver Broncos *projected trade with Cowboys via Browns)--Jeff Otah-they have a few holes on the offensive line and could fill them here
23) Pittsburgh Steelers--DeSean Jackson-Big Ben wanted a "big receiver", but this guy is a playmaker and will still be able to help them
24) Tennessee Titans-Dustin Keller- theres no WRs worth taking here, but this pick makes sense
25) Seattle Seahawks-Phillip Merling-another player to add to their defensive line rotation
26) Atlanta Falcons (*projected trade with Jaguars)-Joe Flacco-they move back up into the bottom of round 1 to select their QB of the future
27) San Diego Chargers-Dan Connor-they dont have many needs, so they go with what could be the best player available
28) Denver Broncos (*projected trade with Cowboys)--Andre Caldwell- they go for best player available at this point
29) San Francisco 49ers (IND)-Trevor Laws-this could be too high for him, but he can still have an impact
30) Oakland Raiders (*projected trade with Packers)-Lawrence Jackson-Lane Kiffin would love this pick
31) New England- *forfeited*
32) New York Giants-Sam Baker-this would allow David Deihl to slide back to guard and help protect Eli Manning

Ok, so let's get this straight, the Bucs go against history and do something they don't and other teams running the t-2 don't do and draft a CB in the 1st... and not only do they do that but one with character concerns and who doesn't tackle.... hmmmm.... #1 criteria for a t-2 CB... "will he tackle?" says Herman Edwards, who knows a thing or 500 about the t-2.

Despite having Jon Jansen and Chris Samuels, the Skins #1 need is OT... great idea when, like us they struggle to rush the passer, have tiny WRs, could use a starting caliber CB or another S?

So the Broncos move away from taking smaller, more agile OL and go with Otah who is closer to 350 than 300?

The Steelers, who already have Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes and say they want to run the ball more take a tiny slot WR?

Keller to the Titans makes sense? How about DE where they lost 2 of their top 3? How about WR, Keller is a good athlete and might be a good TE and this pick isn't out of the realm of possibility but TE is hardly a top need for the Titans.

I like Merling... BUT... he is a base DE and Seattle's base DE is Patrick Kerney who was like the defensive player of the year runner-up, the other one is Daryl Tapp, Seattle has few needs, OG, maybe S, everybody could use a CB, maybe DT, but DE is not one of them for sure.

The Falcons take Flacco? I guess Smith figures he's got 5 years to put together a winning franchise so why nog take the draft's biggest project (besides Woodson)?

Dan Connor and his spindly legs needs protecting in a 4-3, not taking on blockers in a 3-4, a terrible fit.

Broncos take a mid-to-late 2nd rounder in round 1, even Shanny wouldn't do something that stupid.

49ers taking Trev Laws? Didn't they just sign Justin Smith to a huge deal? You know Trev Laws CAN'T play the NT in the 3-4, right?

The Raiders take a guy that doesn't have great measurables but was still productive in college? That's a novel idea, while it might be a wise thing to do, the Raiders NEVER take a guy that is simply a good player, they'd rather take a guy that is the fastest or strongest or has the biggest name. Check out their previous drafts.

Giants taking Sam Baker... He fits their mold, but he just doesn't strike me as a 1st round talent. They really need help at S and might look at a CB as well.

[TampaBay012286]

Ok, so let's get this straight, the Bucs go against history and do something they don't and other teams running the t-2 don't do and draft a CB in the 1st... and not only do they do that but one with character concerns and who doesn't tackle.... hmmmm.... #1 criteria for a t-2 CB... "will he tackle?" says Herman Edwards, who knows a thing or 500 about the t-2.

Despite having Jon Jansen and Chris Samuels, the Skins #1 need is OT... great idea when, like us they struggle to rush the passer, have tiny WRs, could use a starting caliber CB or another S?

So the Broncos move away from taking smaller, more agile OL and go with Otah who is closer to 350 than 300?

The Steelers, who already have Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes and say they want to run the ball more take a tiny slot WR?

Keller to the Titans makes sense? How about DE where they lost 2 of their top 3? How about WR, Keller is a good athlete and might be a good TE and this pick isn't out of the realm of possibility but TE is hardly a top need for the Titans.

I like Merling... BUT... he is a base DE and Seattle's base DE is Patrick Kerney who was like the defensive player of the year runner-up, the other one is Daryl Tapp, Seattle has few needs, OG, maybe S, everybody could use a CB, maybe DT, but DE is not one of them for sure.

The Falcons take Flacco? I guess Smith figures he's got 5 years to put together a winning franchise so why nog take the draft's biggest project (besides Woodson)?

Dan Connor and his spindly legs needs protecting in a 4-3, not taking on blockers in a 3-4, a terrible fit.

Broncos take a mid-to-late 2nd rounder in round 1, even Shanny wouldn't do something that stupid.

49ers taking Trev Laws? Didn't they just sign Justin Smith to a huge deal? You know Trev Laws CAN'T play the NT in the 3-4, right?

The Raiders take a guy that doesn't have great measurables but was still productive in college? That's a novel idea, while it might be a wise thing to do, the Raiders NEVER take a guy that is simply a good player, they'd rather take a guy that is the fastest or strongest or has the biggest name. Check out their previous drafts.

Giants taking Sam Baker... He fits their mold, but he just doesn't strike me as a 1st round talent. They really need help at S and might look at a CB as well.

i appreciate all the comments in another one of my threads, but try to keep all the "expertise" out of the comments, it honestly just makes whatever u post really boring and somewhat to pointless to read... the draft is less than a week away, lets wait until then and see what happens :cool:

[G.h.o.s.t!]

Because no matter how good Ryan may or may not be he is still 3 years away from being a good NFL QB that can win games for his team. Most teams want to win now and don't want to wait 3 years or more for a QB to develop.

Yeah... that's the Gruden in ya talking.... figures! Teams with the luxury to wait 3 years can go ahead and wait; but teams that are established with veterans like Baltimore can look to move the kid along similar to what Pittsburgh did with big Ben. I wouldn't make the statement if the team was going through a total rebuild(BAltimores not)... That's why it would be idiotic to think they would pass on the opportunity to get a good young signal caller of the future. I'm in Maryland and I'm forced to watch a lot of the Ravens.... with a QB who can manage the game properly they have a shot at winning just like the Steelers did with Ben Roethlisberger:cool:

[JamesWilder32]

i appreciate all the comments in another one of my threads, but try to keep all the "expertise" out of the comments, it honestly just makes whatever u post really boring and somewhat to pointless to read... the draft is less than a week away, lets wait until then and see what happens :cool:

Yes, logical reasoning and highly developed intellect and analysis can be very boring to somebody that lives in a fantasy world or gumdrops and lollipops. I suppose your constant idiotic statements, usual butchering of the English language and numerous posts that don't make sense to anybody including you are interesting?

[JamesWilder32]

Yeah... that's the Gruden in ya talking.... figures! Teams with the luxury to wait 3 years can go ahead and wait; but teams that are established with veterans like Baltimore can look to move the kid along similar to what Pittsburgh did with big Ben. I wouldn't make the statement if the team was going through a total rebuild(BAltimores not)... That's why it would be idiotic to think they would pass on the opportunity to get a good young signal caller of the future. I'm in Maryland and I'm forced to watch a lot of the Ravens.... with a QB who can manage the game properly they have a shot at winning just like the Steelers did with Ben Roethlisberger:cool:
The Ravens may very well jump on Ryan or another young signal caller but don't forget, Harbaugh is a brand new coach and the Ravens D isn't getting any younger, their key cogs to their D are either in their prime or just past it, they aren't the same D they were 2-3 years ago and they will need more than just a caretaker. Harbaugh's job is safe for at least two seasons so he may very well try to develop a guy Besides, I'm not saying it won't happen, but you asked "Why wouldn't they?" and I kindly answered your question as to a logical reason why they wouldn't.

[G.h.o.s.t!]

The Ravens may very well jump on Ryan or another young signal caller but don't forget, Harbaugh is a brand new coach and the Ravens D isn't getting any younger, their key cogs to their D are either in their prime or just past it, they aren't the same D they were 2-3 years ago and they will need more than just a caretaker. Harbaugh's job is safe for at least two seasons so he may very well try to develop a guy Besides, I'm not saying it won't happen, but you asked "Why wouldn't they?" and I kindly answered your question as to a logical reason why they wouldn't.

Besides, I'm not saying it won't happen, but you asked "Why wouldn't they?" and I kindly answered your question as to a logical reason why they wouldn't.
It's only logi:cool:cal if it applies simpleton; and in Baltimore's case it doesn't... as I explained... geesh!

[JamesWilder32]

It's only logi:cool:cal if it applies simpleton; and in Baltimore's case it doesn't... as I explained... geesh!

I don't understand what you wrote, simpleton. Try using commas please; it makes a world of difference and will make your post far less ironic, ignoramus.

It is only "logical" if logic is applied, not if it actually happens. Science is not determined by stating something is true only if it happens. Science and statistics are about using logic to tell us why something might happen and what the chances are.

[G.h.o.s.t!]

The Ravens may very well jump on Ryan or another young signal caller but don't forget, Harbaugh is a brand new coach and the Ravens D isn't getting any younger, their key cogs to their D are either in their prime or just past it, they aren't the same D they were 2-3 years ago and they will need more than just a caretaker. Harbaugh's job is safe for at least two seasons so he may very well try to develop a guy Besides, I'm not saying it won't happen, but you asked "Why wouldn't they?" and I kindly answered your question as to a logical reason why they wouldn't.

"Why wouldn't they?"

Ok... It's not logical because you are generalizing with your 3 year theory. And that theory would not apply to every team, because every team doesn't have the luxury or willingness to wait 3 years. I gave you an example with Pittsburgh, how they handled Ben his first year. Carson Palmer was very effective in his second year completing 61% of his passes... Matt Leinart, Derek Anderson and Trent Edwards are more current examples...

Keep up... you can't just pigeon hole every position without looking at the entire teams chemistry and make-up!

Actually I would love to see us take one of the top QB's and just hand it to him. But our offensive coaches are not very good at making things "Simple" enough to bring along young talent!

[JamesWilder32]

Ok... It's not logical because you are generalizing with your 3 year theory. And that theory would not apply to every team, because every team doesn't have the luxury or willingness to wait 3 years. I gave you an example with Pittsburgh, how they handled Ben his first year. Carson Palmer was very effective in his second year completing 61% of his passes... Matt Leinart, Derek Anderson and Trent Edwards are more current examples...

Keep up... you can't just pigeon hole every position without looking at the entire teams chemistry and make-up!

Actually I would love to see us take one of the top QB's and just hand it to him. But our offensive coaches are not very good at making things "Simple" enough to bring along young talent!

Carson Palmer was aveage his first season as a starter, year 2, I'm going on memory here, but I think he threw 18 TDs and 18 INTs and his rating was very average... this with having one of the top 2-3 WRs playing with him at the time (which can do wonders). In his 3rd season he played extremely well.

Matt Leinart has been through 2 seasons and has yet to play very well, what is your point in including him? Is this a post about how Kurt Warner outperformed him by a landslide?

Derek Anderson was a 3rd year guy last season and he played well. Trent Edwards played fantastic as a rookie... sometimes it happnes. Sometimes a young QB comes in and plays very well off the bat but you have to account for defenses. Jeff Blake tore thrrew the league when he first established himself with the Bengals but defenses adjusted and then he was out of Cincy. Same with all QB's, defenses learn about them and take away what they do well, sometimes it takes time to catch up to them. It is very unlikely that Anderson or Edwards can duplicate their numbers from last season.

Big Ben was an exceptional case. He went to a team that had a great defense, a great running game and an entrenched starter (Tommy Maddox). Maddox got hurt and faltered which forced the Steelers to get rid of their finesse game they had been using far too much and re-established their running game which they did. But still, when push came to shove in the playoffs, the Steelers finally had to rely on Roetlisberger to win a game for them and he couldn't do it. He started well that season but as the season went longer he threw less and less as Cowher worked hard to hide his deficiencies which defenses had worked hard to find.

Shaun King is another good example, Tony Banks, Charlie Batch, guys that started their careers pretty well but weren't able to overcome the way defenses started to schemed them and what they took away from them.

Tony Romo is an example of a guy that was able to adjust his game and work hard on his deficiencies and impove. Of course Romo had the luxury of not exposing his talents to the NFL until his 4th season so by the time he started a game, Romo knew a ton more about NFL defenses than they knew about him. But you can plainly see that in Romo's first season as starter he really faltered down the stretch as defenses worked to keep Romo in the pocket, force him to step up instead of rolling out and tried to take away the areas between the numbers and the hashmarks (his strengths at the time) and the deep middle of the field. If you watched Romo that season, you can see he really struggled late but when last season started he was like a new guy. Didn't need to roll out as much, could hit the outs and could nail the crosses and short routes over the middle.


Anyways, theoretically speaking, I believe it takes a rookie QB a minimum of 24 games to be able to effectively evaluate a QB as to whether he can/has become a competent starting QB. Playing well in season 1 is one thing, but after defenses have had time to adjust and take away strengths it is important to see how the QB reacts to overcome it. For QBs that didn't play their first season or two... or many seasons like Romo... I think it takes at least 16 games and one offseason to see how a guy will turn out.



I'm not big on Ryan, not as a top 1st round pick. He may very well be a good QB but his ceiling is pretty much Philip Rivers... and not too many QBs are fortunate enough to play with the best player in the NFL (LT), best TE in football, a good OL and a great defense that gives the offenses many chances. You can say that Rivers has excelled despite not having great WRs but I think his lack of great WRs has more to do with RIvers's inability to get them the ball than the WR's abilities themselves.

[G.h.o.s.t!]

Carson Palmer was aveage his first season as a starter, year 2, I'm going on memory here, but I think he threw 18 TDs and 18 INTs and his rating was very average... this with having one of the top 2-3 WRs playing with him at the time (which can do wonders). In his 3rd season he played extremely well.

Matt Leinart has been through 2 seasons and has yet to play very well, what is your point in including him? Is this a post about how Kurt Warner outperformed him by a landslide?

Derek Anderson was a 3rd year guy last season and he played well. Trent Edwards played fantastic as a rookie... sometimes it happens. Sometimes a young QB comes in and plays very well off the bat but you have to account for defenses. Jeff Blake tore threw the league when he first established himself with the Bengals but defenses adjusted and then he was out of Cincy. Same with all QB's, defenses learn about them and take away what they do well, sometimes it takes time to catch up to them. It is very unlikely that Anderson or Edwards can duplicate their numbers from last season.

Big Ben was an exceptional case. He went to a team that had a great defense, a great running game and an entrenched starter (Tommy Maddox). Maddox got hurt and faltered which forced the Steelers to get rid of their finesse game they had been using far too much and re-established their running game which they did. But still, when push came to shove in the playoffs, the Steelers finally had to rely on Roetlisberger to win a game for them and he couldn't do it. He started well that season but as the season went longer he threw less and less as Cowher worked hard to hide his deficiencies which defenses had worked hard to find.

Shaun King is another good example, Tony Banks, Charlie Batch, guys that started their careers pretty well but weren't able to overcome the way defenses started to schemed them and what they took away from them.

Tony Romo is an example of a guy that was able to adjust his game and work hard on his deficiencies and impove. Of course Romo had the luxury of not exposing his talents to the NFL until his 4th season so by the time he started a game, Romo knew a ton more about NFL defenses than they knew about him. But you can plainly see that in Romo's first season as starter he really faltered down the stretch as defenses worked to keep Romo in the pocket, force him to step up instead of rolling out and tried to take away the areas between the numbers and the hashmarks (his strengths at the time) and the deep middle of the field. If you watched Romo that season, you can see he really struggled late but when last season started he was like a new guy. Didn't need to roll out as much, could hit the outs and could nail the crosses and short routes over the middle.


Anyways, theoretically speaking, I believe it takes a rookie QB a minimum of 24 games to be able to effectively evaluate a QB as to whether he can/has become a competent starting QB. Playing well in season 1 is one thing, but after defenses have had time to adjust and take away strengths it is important to see how the QB reacts to overcome it. For QBs that didn't play their first season or two... or many seasons like Romo... I think it takes at least 16 games and one offseason to see how a guy will turn out.



I'm not big on Ryan, not as a top 1st round pick. He may very well be a good QB but his ceiling is pretty much Philip Rivers... and not too many QBs are fortunate enough to play with the best player in the NFL (LT), best TE in football, a good OL and a great defense that gives the offenses many chances. You can say that Rivers has excelled despite not having great WRs but I think his lack of great WRs has more to do with RIvers's inability to get them the ball than the WR's abilities themselves.

Ok... One more time! What is the distinct difference between the team that drafted Rothlisberger (sp) verses the teams that drafted Carson, Derek, Matt and Trent. Ben was drafted by a veteran team with an extremely good defense, a good running game and a veteran coaching staff. Ben was able to come along slowly due mainly to the way the team was structured which is very similar to the way Baltimore is structured. Matt Ryan's arm is as good as Ben's, his mobility is the same. With the right coaching and game plan similar to what Ben received in Pittsburgh Baltimore can become very good really fast. You take Palmer or Leinarts 2nd year numbers with a conservative approach(meaning reduce the INT's) you have another a productive QB. Which is what Baltimore needs... I remember when McNair came to Baltimore and Ray Lewis asked him point blank how many TD's can he get them every Sunday... McNair claimed 3. Lewis said if you get us 3 TD's a game we will go undefeated; they averaged 22 pts. a game and went 13-3. McNair barely passed for 3000 yards, 12 INT's with an 83 QB rating, Matt Leinart rookie season 2600 yards, 12 INT's with a 74 rating:cool: Look up the rest:rolleyes:

Originally Posted by JamesWilder32 View Post
Because no matter how good Ryan may or may not be he is still 3 years away from being a good NFL QB that can win games for his team. Most teams want to win now and don't want to wait 3 years or more for a QB to develop.


I don't understand why you can't see that your pigeon hole logic about QB play is a generalization. There are key elements that can go into a quarterbacks play. An established team can find ways to be successful with good coaching and effective game planning.