How To Draft by Agent Orange

[Agent Orange]

I'm going to tell you a secret on how to draft. It's very simple. People always like smack their lips about how you take the bpa and then say, well that is as long as that player isn't a "this position" or "that position". Well, doesn't that negate the whole purpose of bpa? If you already have two #1 running backs who are getting payed a lot of money do you take the best rb if he is bpa? I don't that's for sure unless he's Bo Jackson and he'll play here or if I can trade one of the backs I already have.

Here's my philosophy. You have to look at the draft as a whole. Which positions have a large number of 1st round grades, which don't, and who could possibly be available. You do this because if there's only a couple of one position that are worth a damn in the 1st round and everything else after that is average at best then you better think about drafting one of the two players early. Also, if another position you need has a lot of talent that should be available in the later rounds then think about it. Don't just jump at one player when you're going to screw the rest of your draft up because the other positions you need won't be there. This should be pretty simple.

Let me give you an example. This is not related to the Bucs but it's a good example. Say you're Detroit and you've got your two first round picks and early picks in every other round. You need pretty much every position but in a build you want to focus on QB, OT, DL and CB because you already have a couple of solid RBs and one of the leagues top receivers as well as a very solid LB. So you're looking for QB, OT, DL and CB. You have Culpepper, ugh, and a backup and your OTs are not good and you just traded away your best DT. You've got a CB or two but needs to get better....

Now, looking at what's available there are 2/3 QBs that appear to be starter quality, 7 top OT prospects, 13 top DL prospects and about 12 solid CB prospects. What do you do?

Well, the way I look at it is that you'd be smart to grab your QB first because there aren't going to be any there when you pick at 20 unless you're sold on Josh Freeman and even he could be gone. There will definitely be a lot of OT, DL and CBs left at 20 and 33 to choose from. You could really grad the best QB, the 3rd/4th best OT or the 2nd/3rd rated CB at 20 and then at 33 your sitting pretty with whoever falls.

That's how you should draft. If you do it any other way you are looking at an uphill battle unless you want to trade a bunch or you are just dead set on one player early. bpa is great and is a possibility for a team like the Lions but for the Bucs and most other teams it just won't work over the entire draft. Go ahead, tell me I'm wrong but if you look at our situation and try and put together a mock any other way you are looking at failure in at least half of the rounds.

[bgator1985]

i also believe in addition to that you need the ability to look ahead into possibilities in next years draft to see if that may be a better option. that, and being realistic about your team so you can gauge where you can potentially be drafting. another reason why i see stafford being passed on by detroit

[Bucko40]

Mark Dominik stated it best. You draft not only the BPA but you also draft the BPA for the Bucs. You do this by 1st evaluating your current team as a whole. So need does factor into the draft process but only before you start to set your draftboard. Under the below scenerio IMO you would grade RB, QB, OL and CB lower and WR, DL and OLB higher

QB- McCown, Greise, Johnson and Leftwich. Need to draft is minimum after Stafford and Sanchez are off the board. Freeman maybe but he's not going to compete for starting time this season.

RB- Ward, Graham, Caddy and Smith. Need to draft is low.

OL- starters and good depth along the whole line. Could draft improvements though over Penn and Trueblood at OT.

WR-After Bryant and Clayton the cupboard is thin. 1st or 3rd round selection is possible. Bad thing is quality depth at WR is slim in this years draft. Chance of WR early is high.

DL-Tough call- DT and DE could use an upgarde but depth at these position is good at DE and not so good at DT. With Bucs not having a 2nd round pick the chances of getting a quality DT in the 3rd is not likely. With or without a trade then DT is a high priority on draft day.

OLB- Big need at both OLB positions. This could be the area the Bucs are targeting in either Cushing, Mathews or Sintim. Bucs in same prediciment with the DL. If you pass on a LB with no 2nd round pick then you may miss out on a impact LB by the 3rd round.

DB- Another big need but with so little quality depth. Good thing here is that CB depth in draft is good.

At least that's the way i think about how the process will go.

[Agent Orange]

Mark Dominik stated it best. You draft not only the BPA but you also draft the BPA for the Bucs. You do this by 1st evaluating your current team as a whole. So need does factor into the draft process but only before you start to set your draftboard. Under the below scenerio IMO you would grade RB, QB, OL and CB lower and WR, DL and OLB higher

QB- McCown, Greise, Johnson and Leftwich. Need to draft is minimum after Stafford and Sanchez are off the board. Freeman maybe but he's not going to compete for starting time this season.

RB- Ward, Graham, Caddy and Smith. Need to draft is low.

OL- starters and good depth along the whole line. Could draft improvements though over Penn and Trueblood at OT.

WR-After Bryant and Clayton the cupboard is thin. 1st or 3rd round selection is possible. Bad thing is quality depth at WR is slim in this years draft. Chance of WR early is high.

DL-Tough call- DT and DE could use an upgarde but depth at these position is good at DE and not so good at DT. With Bucs not having a 2nd round pick the chances of getting a quality DT in the 3rd is not likely. With or without a trade then DT is a high priority on draft day.

OLB- Big need at both OLB positions. This could be the area the Bucs are targeting in either Cushing, Mathews or Sintim. Bucs in same prediciment with the DL. If you pass on a LB with no 2nd round pick then you may miss out on a impact LB by the 3rd round.

DB- Another big need but with so little quality depth. Good thing here is that CB depth in draft is good.

At least that's the way i think about how the process will go.

Here are a couple of spots we don't agree on. I'd also like to mention that when one of the top prospects that is way up there on the board drops to you even though he may not be in a position of great need this is where bpa comes into play for me.

QB is minimum as you stated. I agree with that unless one of the top 2 drops to us. Obviously then it's a tough call not to take one. I also agree that there is a lot more talent coming out next year so I'd prefer to at least give our guys a shot before blowing a 1st on anyone early in this draft.

RB-Minimum priority again but you can never have enough running backs. I wouldn't mine taking one late because there are some good backs scattered throughout this draft.

WR-Whether we like Clayton or not we gave him a big contract and the coaches like him so blowing a 1st on one might not be a priority unless one of the top 2 drops to us. Bryant is a solid #1 so we're set there for at least another year. I disagree that there isn't a lot of talent at WR in this draft. There are solid receivers throughout this draft.

DL-I didn't separate DT and DE because there are a lot of talented DL players in this draft and we could really use both DT and DE so when looking at it if a top DE falls to us we have to consider it even if we have to wait on DT. Unfortunately though if we do that there isn't much at DT in this draft so if you go DE in the 1st you'll have to go DT in the 3rd or pretty much forget about it.

OLB-Lots of talent at OLB in this draft. All the way down to the 5th round I see really solid prospects. Here's where we disagree. We have minimal/medium need for an OLB. With Phillips moving to OLB we're almost overbooked with solid prospects/talent right now. LB in general is a great pick in the mid to late rounds though because they can play special teams.

CB-Going to need to draft a CB in this draft if not 2. We have some depth but I don't want to end up like 2003 again when Kelly went down and we got torched. I see a ton of talent in the 3rd round and I wouldn't be completely apposed to drafting Alphonso Smith in the 1st but I'd really prefer we wait for round 3 because there's four players that should be there that are solid.

Positions that have little to no talent in draft imo:

QB
DT
S(unless you include the CBs)
TE
G(I could be wrong here but I haven't heard much about any guards)


Positions that have a lot of talent in the draft imo:

RB
WR
OT
DE
LB
CB

[Bucko40]

Here are a couple of spots we don't agree on. I'd also like to mention that when one of the top prospects that is way up there on the board drops to you even though he may not be in a position of great need this is where bpa comes into play for me.

QB is minimum as you stated. I agree with that unless one of the top 2 drops to us. Obviously then it's a tough call not to take one. I also agree that there is a lot more talent coming out next year so I'd prefer to at least give our guys a shot before blowing a 1st on anyone early in this draft.

RB-Minimum priority again but you can never have enough running backs. I wouldn't mine taking one late because there are some good backs scattered throughout this draft.

WR-Whether we like Clayton or not we gave him a big contract and the coaches like him so blowing a 1st on one might not be a priority unless one of the top 2 drops to us. Bryant is a solid #1 so we're set there for at least another year. I disagree that there isn't a lot of talent at WR in this draft. There are solid receivers throughout this draft.

DL-I didn't separate DT and DE because there are a lot of talented DL players in this draft and we could really use both DT and DE so when looking at it if a top DE falls to us we have to consider it even if we have to wait on DT. Unfortunately though if we do that there isn't much at DT in this draft so if you go DE in the 1st you'll have to go DT in the 3rd or pretty much forget about it.

OLB-Lots of talent at OLB in this draft. All the way down to the 5th round I see really solid prospects. Here's where we disagree. We have minimal/medium need for an OLB. With Phillips moving to OLB we're almost overbooked with solid prospects/talent right now. LB in general is a great pick in the mid to late rounds though because they can play special teams.

CB-Going to need to draft a CB in this draft if not 2. We have some depth but I don't want to end up like 2003 again when Kelly went down and we got torched. I see a ton of talent in the 3rd round and I wouldn't be completely apposed to drafting Alphonso Smith in the 1st but I'd really prefer we wait for round 3 because there's four players that should be there that are solid.

Positions that have little to no talent in draft imo:

QB
DT
S(unless you include the CBs)
TE
G(I could be wrong here but I haven't heard much about any guards)


Positions that have a lot of talent in the draft imo:

RB
WR
OT
DE
LB
CB

That's a fair accessment all around. RB could be seen as Ward and Graham are near 30 and Caddy is a injury away being a total bust pick because of it.

One thing I'm counting on is that Gruden system was so horriblely crafted that it didn't put skilled players in a position to suceed. I think we will see a different player in Clayton. hopefully similar to his rookie season when he was the #1.

[KingFlorida1]

i also believe in addition to that you need the ability to look ahead into possibilities in next years draft to see if that may be a better option. that, and being realistic about your team so you can gauge where you can potentially be drafting. another reason why i see stafford being passed on by detroit

I don't think you draft for who you might get next year. Simply because you have absolutely no idea as to where you will be drafting next year. I hear a lot of people saying we might be able to get one of the top qb's next year, but in reality we have no way of knowing that.

[Agent Orange]

Thought some of you might find this useful. I made this up last year and there were a couple of good points added.

[PABucsFan570]

Good thread AO.

[h-town baller]

AO are you sure this is the right approach? good thread by the way

[BarbarianBuc]

I don't think you draft for who you might get next year. Simply because you have absolutely no idea as to where you will be drafting next year. I hear a lot of people saying we might be able to get one of the top qb's next year, but in reality we have no way of knowing that.

In addition, the idea that you responded to doesn't address injuries. That's like saying....NO! Don't take Josh Freeman. We can draft Sam Bradford next year. Well.....that wouldn't have worked out so well right.....

Oh and good thread AO. I think this is exactly how people should draft. Teams that are actually in position to draft BPA are middle of the pack teams and top tier teams. They can afford to simply take whoever the BPA almost regardless of who they already have. For teams that are trying to build because they suck....you have to take BPA....but the BPA that's right for the specific team.

[Agent Orange]

AO are you sure this is the right approach? good thread by the way

I'm sure. I also agree that you have to take into account who is coming out next year to a degree. Being that there were so few QBs of talent coming out last year and a loaded class coming out this year it would have been smarter imo to wait till this year. We could get a talented QB in the 2nd round this year.

For example this year there aren't that many talented DTs in the draft. We could wait but if there is a run on DTs early we'd be screwed.

[TornadoRex]

... this year's QB is good, but the DT class isn't?

Am I missing something here?

[Agent Orange]

... this year's QB is good, but the DT class isn't?

Am I missing something here?

There are 5 to 7 QBs with 1st or 2nd round grades. That's with Locker not even coming out. I count Suh, McCoy, Cody and Price as 1st round grades and the only other DT I like right now is Lamarr Houston. It's pretty close to even but I really don't like the back side of the DT group all that much.

[TornadoRex]

There are 5 to 7 QBs with 1st or 2nd round grades. That's with Locker not even coming out. I count Suh, McCoy, Cody and Price as 1st round grades and the only other DT I like right now is Lamarr Houston. It's pretty close to even but I really don't like the back side of the DT group all that much.

The only two that matter at all coming into the draft are Clausen and Bradford. I don't think any of the others are going to be starters without some serious development.

[JudgeDredd]

The only two that matter at all coming into the draft are Clausen and Bradford. I don't think any of the others are going to be starters without some serious development.
Bingo.


I don't know what QB class he's looking at...

[no1bucsfan29]

There are 5 to 7 QBs with 1st or 2nd round grades. That's with Locker not even coming out. I count Suh, McCoy, Cody and Price as 1st round grades and the only other DT I like right now is Lamarr Houston. It's pretty close to even but I really don't like the back side of the DT group all that much.

I would love to see your list of 7 1st/2nd round grade QB's coming out this year.

[Agent Orange]

In no particular order....

Clausen
Bradford
Tebow
McCoy
Pike
Snead

QBs who didn't declare who would have been 1-2 rounders....

Ryan Mallett
Jake Locker

[JudgeDredd]

The drop off after Bradford is insane. You have guys that are able to come in their sophmore year (or, the way the league is doing it now a days, Week 1), and guys that are PROJECTS that will need a lot of developement before they even think about thinking about putting them on the field. More than Freeman needed. McCoy, Pike, Snead are all on par with Brian Brohm with maaaybe McCoy sneaking into the 2nd round.


On the flip side you have Suh and McCoy who are Day 1 starters. You have Cody, Price, Dan Williams all who could sneak into the 1st round.

[PowderMonkey]

In no particular order....

Clausen
Bradford
Tebow
McCoy
Pike
Snead


Clausen and Bradford = legit 1st rounders.
Tebow = major gamble, but will probably go in the first round.
McCoy = 4th round talent, but will go higher.
Pike = arm like a wet noodle
Snead = stock has dropped, though he's the one QB that might be had in the 3rd or 4th round that could really work out

[FromdaCrowsNest]

Dominik's said that his drafting philosphy for BPA is two-fold.

BPA for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is different than "BPA" in the entire draft.

It's a slight twist, but in my mind an important one that those two 'choices' are made independently.

I also like the fact that they alluded to choosing picks as a quorum, rather than one person, a personality or politics get involved in swaying the pick. I think that issue was prevalent in drafts prior to 2009.

We're going to come out of this one with a lot of talent, no matter who we pick in the positions we need to fill.

[Agent Orange]

Clausen and Bradford = legit 1st rounders.
Tebow = major gamble, but will probably go in the first round.
McCoy = 4th round talent, but will go higher.
Pike = arm like a wet noodle
Snead = stock has dropped, though he's the one QB that might be had in the 3rd or 4th round that could really work out

Look at most of the mock drafts. All these guys are going in the first 2 rounds in many of them. They are also rated 1st/2nd round by many rating services. Every single one of these guys are better than Freeman imo.

[BucLovinTerp]

Clausen and Bradford are the only first-round QB prospects this year.

McCoy and Tebow are second-rounders.

Snead and Pike are third-rounders.

[SOL]

This is the worst QB class in years, there isn't a single guy being pegged as a close-to-sure-fire franchise guy in the bunch. All have HUGE question marks. Bradford and Clausen are the only potential firsts. Colt may sneak in, but its unlikely.

The DT class is the best I've seen in a decade. 2 elite prospects and 3-4 others that could go 1st and probably another 4-5 in the second.

[jonnychan]

Look at most of the mock drafts. All these guys are going in the first 2 rounds in many of them. They are also rated 1st/2nd round by many rating services. :eek:Every single one of these guys are better than Freeman imo.:eek:

That means almost all the teams in 3-4 years will have superstar QBs.:cool:

[maryjanewatson]

I'm going to tell you a secret on how to draft. It's very simple. People always like smack their lips about how you take the bpa and then say, well that is as long as that player isn't a "this position" or "that position". Well, doesn't that negate the whole purpose of bpa? If you already have two #1 running backs who are getting payed a lot of money do you take the best rb if he is bpa? I don't that's for sure unless he's Bo Jackson and he'll play here or if I can trade one of the backs I already have.

Here's my philosophy. You have to look at the draft as a whole. Which positions have a large number of 1st round grades, which don't, and who could possibly be available. You do this because if there's only a couple of one position that are worth a damn in the 1st round and everything else after that is average at best then you better think about drafting one of the two players early. Also, if another position you need has a lot of talent that should be available in the later rounds then think about it. Don't just jump at one player when you're going to screw the rest of your draft up because the other positions you need won't be there. This should be pretty simple.

Let me give you an example. This is not related to the Bucs but it's a good example. Say you're Detroit and you've got your two first round picks and early picks in every other round. You need pretty much every position but in a build you want to focus on QB, OT, DL and CB because you already have a couple of solid RBs and one of the leagues top receivers as well as a very solid LB. So you're looking for QB, OT, DL and CB. You have Culpepper, ugh, and a backup and your OTs are not good and you just traded away your best DT. You've got a CB or two but needs to get better....

Now, looking at what's available there are 2/3 QBs that appear to be starter quality, 7 top OT prospects, 13 top DL prospects and about 12 solid CB prospects. What do you do?

Well, the way I look at it is that you'd be smart to grab your QB first because there aren't going to be any there when you pick at 20 unless you're sold on Josh Freeman and even he could be gone. There will definitely be a lot of OT, DL and CBs left at 20 and 33 to choose from. You could really grad the best QB, the 3rd/4th best OT or the 2nd/3rd rated CB at 20 and then at 33 your sitting pretty with whoever falls.

That's how you should draft. If you do it any other way you are looking at an uphill battle unless you want to trade a bunch or you are just dead set on one player early. bpa is great and is a possibility for a team like the Lions but for the Bucs and most other teams it just won't work over the entire draft. Go ahead, tell me I'm wrong but if you look at our situation and try and put together a mock any other way you are looking at failure in at least half of the rounds.

Two Points:

1) Nobody actually advocates "pure" BPA, for the reason you stated (even people who think they are usually aren't). You don't draft a guy who has almost no chance of contributing high in the draft (your point). You also don't draft a fullback or a punter or a kicker or in many cases, a tight end, guard, or safety (cough) very early in the first because of the relative lack of impact you get from those positions except in the rarest of cases.

2) I've written a bit about this, but it's worth repeating: you should look at position scarcity to a certain extent. If you're looking for an impact running back in this draft, you'd better take one early because it's a very thin class in the middle. If you're looking for an impact safety, they'll be some guys who carry top 50 grades available with the 100th pick. I call it the "Fantasy Baseball Principle." There's a reason you draft an elite shortstop or catcher before an elite first baseman in a Fantasy Baseball draft - you'll be able to find 80% of the production from another first baseman later, but probably not half of the shortstop.

I would even take it a step further: you should also look at next year's potential class when drafting this year. Next year, there will be several impact running backs and wide receivers, but very few impact defensive linemen (compared to THIS class). With this in mind, it makes more sense to address the defensive line this year and wait until next for the skill positions (within reason).

[Ken Carson]

Mark Dominik stated it best. You draft not only the BPA but you also draft the BPA for the Bucs. You do this by 1st evaluating your current team as a whole. So need does factor into the draft process but only before you start to set your draftboard. Under the below scenerio IMO you would grade RB, QB, OL and CB lower and WR, DL and OLB higher

QB- McCown, Greise, Johnson and Leftwich. Need to draft is minimum after Stafford and Sanchez are off the board. Freeman maybe but he's not going to compete for starting time this season.

RB- Ward, Graham, Caddy and Smith. Need to draft is low.

OL- starters and good depth along the whole line. Could draft improvements though over Penn and Trueblood at OT.

WR-After Bryant and Clayton the cupboard is thin. 1st or 3rd round selection is possible. Bad thing is quality depth at WR is slim in this years draft. Chance of WR early is high.

DL-Tough call- DT and DE could use an upgarde but depth at these position is good at DE and not so good at DT. With Bucs not having a 2nd round pick the chances of getting a quality DT in the 3rd is not likely. With or without a trade then DT is a high priority on draft day.

OLB- Big need at both OLB positions. This could be the area the Bucs are targeting in either Cushing, Mathews or Sintim. Bucs in same prediciment with the DL. If you pass on a LB with no 2nd round pick then you may miss out on a impact LB by the 3rd round.

DB- Another big need but with so little quality depth. Good thing here is that CB depth in draft is good.

At least that's the way i think about how the process will go.

Remind me to never take your draft advice.;)

[PrimeMinister]

This is the worst QB class in years, there isn't a single guy being pegged as a close-to-sure-fire franchise guy in the bunch. All have HUGE question marks. Bradford and Clausen are the only potential firsts. Colt may sneak in, but its unlikely.

The DT class is the best I've seen in a decade. 2 elite prospects and 3-4 others that could go 1st and probably another 4-5 in the second.
Ironically, this is exactly the opposite of what people were saying before and after last years draft.

Before and after Freeman the common complaint was "Next year's class is the best in 10 years" etc. Now it appears this years class is not as good as advertised due to sevral factor (injuries, poor performance, etc)

[PoppaPewter]

AO has a great thread going then he spoils it with his QB vs DT comment in this years draft........just another way to hide the fact that he wanted to spend our first rounder last year on Ron Brace instead of Freeman.....I call Shannanagans!!!!!