First Round Receivers: Do They Bust More ? (Warning: Actual Long Winded Analysis)

[maryjanewatson]

One of the big (and really, the only worthwhile one IMHO) arguments against taking Calvin Johnson seems to the high number of receivers who bust. I decided to do some research on the subject of first round wide receivers. My conclusions: they do bust frequently, but so does nearly every other position.

First, I went back and looked over the first round receivers of a five year NFL draft period (2000-2004). I chose these years before looking at the data. I did not start with 2005 or 2006 because the jury is still out. I went with five years because it's a nice even number, and ten would take too long. Hence, 2000-2004.

Then, I compared wide receivers during that period with the other positions we could take: namely, quarterback (Brady Quinn and maybe JaMarcus Russell, maybe), defensive end (Jamaal Anderson, Gaines Adams), defensive tackle (Amobi Okoye), and offensive tackle (Joe Thomas). I consider those the only players we might take besides Johnson, assuming we don't trade down. I really only included Okoye to be nice. If we don't trade down, it'll be CJ, Thomas, Quinn, Adams, or Anderson.

The term "bust" is certainly subjective. Sometimes it's easy, but sometimes it's not. There are no set criteria. I went with my gut feelings; you're free to disagree. I'm not necessarily interested in what they did for the team that drafted them, just what they did in general. Again, this is not meant to be a scientific study, just a broad stroke.

Okay, let's look at the propensity of WRs in those five drafts to bust:

2000
4. Cincinatti - Peter Warrick. BUST
8. Pittsburgh - Plaxico Burress.
10. Baltimore - Travis Taylor. BUST
21. Kansas City - Sly Morris. BUST
29. Jacksonville - R. Jay Soward. BUST

2001
8. Chicago - David Terrell. BUST
9. Seattle - Koren Robinson. BUST
15. Washington - Rod Gardner. BUST
16. Jets - Santana Moss.
30. Indianapolis - Reggie Wayne.

2002
13. New Orleans - Donte Stallworth. (He's not a bust - barely)
19. Denver - Ashley Leslie. (You could go either way, but he has had a 1,000 yard season and could still make good after forcing his way out of Denver and then wasting a year with Michael Vick)
20. Green Bay - Javon Walker.

2003
2. Detroit - Charles Rogers. BUST
3. Houston - Andre Johnson.
17. Arizona - Bryant Johnson. BUST

2004
3. Arizona - Larry Fitzgerald.
7. Detroit - Roy Williams.
9. Jacksonville - Reggie Williams. BUST
13. Buffalo - Lee Evans.
15. Tampa - Michael Clayton. BUST (Sigh)
29. Atlanta - Michael Jenkins. BUST (Although with Vick, who can say?)
31. San Francisco - Rashaun Woods. BUST

Okay, so the tally:
23 Receivers Taken In The First Round, 2000-2004
13 Outright Busts.
Bust Rate: 57%

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Okay, now let's look at QB's busting, for all the Quinn fans out there:

2000
18. Jets - Chad Pennington

2001
1. Atlanta - Michael Vick. (I'm not calling him a bust, but you can make a case in many ways)

2002
1. Houston - David Carr. BUST (Is he Ryan Leaf? No. But he never came close to being worth this pick, and there's no way he'd be taken this high again)
3. Detroit - Joey Harrington. BUST
32. Washington - Patrick Ramsey. BUST

2003
1. Cincinatti - Carson Palmer.
7. Jacksonville - Byron Leftwich. BUST (But he could turn it around)
19. Baltimore - Kyle Boller. BUST
22. Chicago - Rex Grossman. (Not a bust...yet)

2004
1. Giants - Eli Manning. (Not a bust yet, but another lousy year and he's getting the same treatment as Carr)
4. Chargers - Phillip Rivers.
11. Pittsburgh - Ben Roethlisberger.
22. Buffalo - JP Losman.

The score for QBs (with a much smaller sample size):
13 QBs Taken In The First Round, 2000-2004
5 Outright Busts
Bust Rate: 38%

----------------------------

Are you on the Anderson or Adams bandwagon? Here you go:

2000:
1. Cleveland - Courtney Brown. BUST
12. Jets - Shaun Ellis.
13. Jets - John Abraham.
26. Buffalo - Erik Flowers. BUST

2001:
4. Cincinatti - Justin Smith. (Not a bust, but never a star either)
6. New England - Richard Seymour.
7. San Francisco - Andre Carter. BUST (Never developed as a pass rusher, despite what the Redskins paid him)
10. Green Bay - Jamal Reynolds. BUST (Of the epic variety)

2002:
2. Carolina - Julius Peppers.
11. Indianaplis - Dwight Freeney.
22. Jets - Bryan Thomas. BUST
25. New Orleans - Charles Grant.

2003:
10. Baltimore - Terrell Suggs.
13. New England - Ty Warren.
14. Chicago - Michael Haynes. BUST
15. Philadelphia - Jerome McDougal. BUST
32. Oakland - Tyler Brayton. BUST

2004:
20. Minnesota - Kenechi Udeze. BUST (Thus Far)
27. Houston - Jason Babin. BUST (But you can argue the point, especially since he played OLB for his first two years).

The results for DE's:
19 Defensive Ends Taken In The First Round, 2000-2004
10 Busts.
53% Bust Rate

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For Amobi Okoye Fans, defensive tackles in the same period:

2000:
6. Philadelphia - Corey Simon.
25. Minnesota - Chris Hovan. BUST (You can make a case that either Simon or Hovan busted, so I'm splitting the difference)

2001:
3. Cleveland - Gerard Warren. BUST
12. St. Louis - Damione Lewis. BUST
19. Pittsburgh - Casey Hampton.
29. St. Louis - Ryan Pickett. BUST

2002:
6. Kansas City - Ryan Sims. BUST
9. Jacksonville - John Henderson.
12. Arizona - Wendell Bryant. BUST
15. Tennesee - Albert Haynesworth.

2003:
4. Jets - DeWayne Robertson. BUST (Yeah, not a total, Ryan Sims type bust, but he's never lived up to this pick, the contract, or what the Jets gave up for him)
9. Minnesota - Kevin Williams.
12. St. Louis - Jimmy Kennedy. BUST
25. Giants - William Joseph. BUST (for the most part)

2004:
14. Chicago - Tommie Harris.
21. New England - Vince Wilfork.
23. Seattle - Marcus Tubbs.

The Defensive Tackle Totals:
17 Taken
9 Busts
53% Bust Rate

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Finally, for Joe Thomas fans:

2000:
3. Washington - Chris Samuels.
20. Detroit - Stockar McDougle. BUST

2001:
2. Arizona - Leonard Davis. BUST
14. Tampa - Kenyatta Walker. BUST (Duh)
18. Detroit - Jeff Backus.

2002:
4. Buffalo - Mike Williams. BUST
7. Minnesota - Bryant McKinnie.
10. Cincinatti - Levi Jones.
29. Chicago - Marc Columbo. BUST

2003:
8. Carolina - Jordan Gross.
20. Denver - George Foster. BUST (He's been a starter, but a mediocre one - sort of their Kenyatta)

2004:
2. Oakland - Robert Gallery. BUST
19. Miami - Vernon Carey. BUST (He's a fringe starter and better at guard)

The totals:
13 Tackles Selected.
8 Busts.
62% Bust Rate.

----------------------------------------
The Final Bust Totals, based on my subjective opinion, by relevant position, 2000-2004. I'm NOT NOT NOT calling this "proof" of anything. It's too subjective and there are too many variables, and too limited a timeframe. I'm simply illustrating a point here.

Offensive Tackles (Joe Thomas): 62%
Wide Receivers (Calvin Johnson): 57%
Defensive Tackles (Amobi Okoye): 53%
Defensive Ends (Jamaal Anderson, Gaines Adams): 53%
Quarterbacks (Brady Quinn, JaMarcus Russell): 38%

So, what's the bottom line? Well, as far as pure "bust" goes, every position except QB is in the same general area. You're roughly as likely to bust with a WR in the first round as you are a tackle or a defensive lineman. At least, if recent history is your guide.

It's just something to keep in mind the next time you hear the "We shouldn't take CJ because wide receivers bust too often."

Coming soon: Booms.

[Dy-nasty D]

Thanks, MJ. That took some work.

Those QBs are starting to look better.

[UMiamiBucFan]

I'm pretty surprised that the QB bust percentage was so low. You would typically think that QBs have the highest bust probability, but that this shows the lowest.

Nice read. Thanks. That really made me think. We DO hear how WR are too risky. But as was pointed out, so is everyone else. Good Job.

Good, broad analysis! I was actually just looking at the same drafts in the same light, because I'm weary of taking an offensive lineman 4th. Personally, I'd rather trade down if Cj isn't available. Jamarcus Russell's arm is incredible, but Simms has a decent longball that hasn't always been properly utilized by Gruden's offense. And, I DO NOT like Brady Quinn. He's a product of a hype-machine- and I hate saying this, especially because my favorite player is Matt Leinart, but he is also a product of Weis' system. He was terrible before Charlie, and to me he hasn't been that impressive with him. Sure, he's got impressive stats, but that's no way to evaluate a player. Just my $ 0.02.

oh, and 5 is an odd number

[bcf1968]

That's all BS. What determines what's a bsut or not. And you include the 2004 draft which is WAY too soon to tell anything. By this theory since QBs have the lowest bust rate we should draft QB every year in the first round to avoid drafting busts. Funny how you stop at 2000. Why not include 1999? Oh wait because there were 5 QBs drafted in the 1st round and 3 were busts and the jury is still out on Culpepper. Or how aboout 1998? Two QBs, one major bust. But that would screw up your ratio. 20 QBs taken 9 busts. 45% bust ratio.

[bcf1968]

Originally Posted by polar playboy

because I'm weary of taking an offensive lineman 4th.

Last time we took a T from Wisconsin with the 4th pick in the draft it work out pretty well.

4 Tampa Bay Paul Gruber T Wisconsin

[CPT_FEAR]

Originally Posted by UMiamiBucFan

I'm pretty surprised that the QB bust percentage was so low. You would typically think that QBs have the highest bust probability, but that this shows the lowest.

1. This is just too subjective. Call JP Losman a bust and, also Grossman and you'd be over 50 %, too. Or don't count the "not sures" to the total players taken sum, what would make this about 0.5 also. It somehow looks to me as if someone really liked Quinn and made some stats, making him look even better.

2. Also, there aren't enough players taken into consideration, so you can make a statiscally correct conclusion out of it.

3. It depends much on every single player. Calvin Johnson is at least in the Top5 of college WR prospects. It wouldn't be fair to mention him in one breath with any of the Detroit WRs or Michael Clayton a.s.o. . He also is a quite complete player by now, where one can be optimistic, that he'll be a stud at the next level. Consider the GT QB sucks. Other WRs might look good thanks to their QB at this point.

Originally Posted by bcf1968

Last time we took a T from Wisconsin with the 4th pick in the draft it work out pretty well.

4 Tampa Bay Paul Gruber T Wisconsin

True, but we didn't win anything those years. And, the top 3 WR had pretty careers too... plus rings.

6- Tim Brown
7- Sterling Sharpe
11- Michael Irvin

He had a great career here, and I wish we would have won something when he was around. Joe Thomas isn't Paul Gruber though, and recent history is what 's responsible for my uneasy feeling about drafting a lineman 4th.

[Acacius]

Originally Posted by CPT_FEAR

1. This is just too subjective. Call JP Losman a bust and, also Grossman and you'd be over 50 %, too. Or don't count the "not sures" to the total players taken sum, what would make this about 0.5 also. It somehow looks to me as if someone really liked Quinn and made some stats, making him look even better.

You'd be pretty crazy to call Losman a bust. He really did look like a genuine football player last year. Overall though, the problem with the qbs in the list is, as mjw pointed out, that it's a fairly limited sample size.

I'm going to be a lazy git and not work things out, but in my experience in looking over draft histories, it seems like the success rate of players is pretty darned close to 50% regardless of position. You see some variation one way or the other, but not enough that I'm willing to concede that it isn't just noise one way or the other.

This is why I fall firmly in the camp of, "you have to trust your scouts and evaluate each prospect on their own merits rather than trying to play statistical games".

[John Doe]

Originally Posted by maryjanewatson

12. St. Louis - Jimmy Kennedy. BUST
25. Giants - William Joseph. BUST (for the most part)

23. Seattle - Marcus Tubbs.

Yeah, I know you said it was subjective, but if Kennedy and Joseph are busts, what has Marcus Tubbs done to not deserve that status? He's had injury problems every year since entering the league (he's missed 40% of the possible games he could have played). When does manage to get in the game, he's performed average at best and has barely managed to crack Seattle's starting lineup. I'm sure they expected a lot more out of their 1st round pick.

Also, Stallworth and Lelie should be busts considering their draft status and production. They're both already on their 3rd team since entering the league and barely commanded any money during this year's free agency period when average players were getting $40 million dollar contracts. That should tell you something about their value.

[real bucs fan]

Originally Posted by polar playboy

Good, broad analysis! I was actually just looking at the same drafts in the same light, because I'm weary of taking an offensive lineman 4th. Personally, I'd rather trade down if Cj isn't available. Jamarcus Russell's arm is incredible, but Simms has a decent longball that hasn't always been properly utilized by Gruden's offense. And, I DO NOT like Brady Quinn. He's a product of a hype-machine- and I hate saying this, especially because my favorite player is Matt Leinart, but he is also a product of Weis' system. He was terrible before Charlie, and to me he hasn't been that impressive with him. Sure, he's got impressive stats, but that's no way to evaluate a player. Just my $ 0.02.

oh, and 5 is an odd number

[BGcarnage32]

There were a lot of "busts" in that would sure as hell be an upgrade for a lot of teams - I don't quite understand your criteria of a "bust".

[mediator12]

Excellent thought process MJW, but as you said its a small sample size and any inferences taken from such a relatively small sample are not anywhere near reliable, let alone valid.

What it does do however, is make the point that approximately 42% of first round selected players fail to become legitimate players for the team that drafts them. The percentages drop drastically with each round. Allowing for the average player that makes a team, not gets drafted, plays an average of 3.2 years it just shows how small of a group of draftees are actually NFL quality players.

Playing the general statistical numbers game as an argument for or against drafting a player is quite worthless. There are too many relevant factors to have a poor confounding variable like past performance of former players at that position to be reliable. Not all players will perform the same from team to team, scheme to scheme, and coach to coach etc. Mental performance aptitude is poorly evaluated in the current systems of drafting and weighs very little in the selection process.

Therefore, many players fail simply by being drafted poorly to the skill set they possess and are never developed accordingly. Elite level players have elite level mental ability. They do what it takes to succeed and never accept failure as final. The physically gifted players, without the mental abilities to match their physical skills, get plenty of opportunities while never becoming elite players. They simply rely on their physical abilities and never develop their mental ones. However, the majority of the league is still comprised of the grunts who fall in the middle and do the dirty work for the superstars. Never underestimate the need for quality consistent players over superstars.

More draft Busts happen for the very reason of mismatching between scouts and coaching staffs. Scouts find players with physical upside, coaches want Physically ready players. Scouts complain that the players are not being developed and coached enough, coaches complain they do not have the physical tools to develop. Scouts think they can find the diamonds in the rough, coaches think they can coach up great talents. This process becomes counter-productive and leads to many drafting errors from all sides of the process.

The draft brings great hope every off-season with Mantras of "great teams build through the draft", "this guy is a can not miss player", and other stereotypes that people want to believe for their respective teams. What people fail to realize, is that there are less than 100 players total that can usually unseat current players in every draft. That is less than a meager 3.13 players per team on average. That means that as you have better players, it is harder to replace them and your drafts can seem terrible for that year or years. Or, conversely that if you have poor players it is easier to clean house and keep more younger draftees while your drafts seem more productive in the short term.

Personally, I think the media has completely over-romanticized the draft and that perception has filtered down to the fans. Unfortunately, I have fallen for it hook, line, and sinker The draft is the great offseason hope for every team, when other factors are much more relevant to next years success and beyond.

[maryjanewatson]

My strokes were broad, my method was unscientific, and my criteria was a gut check - I admit as much. My point is, people acting as if taking a WR somehow opens us up to a bust that much more than taking some other position are off-base. I think, despite the flaws in the method, I demonstrated that.

[nensey_zy]

I guess this leads us back to the main point- drafting is an inexact science.

[KiffininCanton]

I hate to pile on someone who took a lot of time and research but it does seem the poster gives the QB's the benefit of the doubt more than any other position. Plus as pointed out the poster happens to stop at 2000 when there was a lot of bust the years before than.

[KiffininCanton]

Originally Posted by polar playboy

True, but we didn't win anything those years. And, the top 3 WR had pretty careers too... plus rings.

6- Tim Brown
7- Sterling Sharpe
11- Michael Irvin

He had a great career here, and I wish we would have won something when he was around. Joe Thomas isn't Paul Gruber though, and recent history is what 's responsible for my uneasy feeling about drafting a lineman 4th.

That was hardly Paul's fault. As for the people that we passed up to pick him, they would of left after their first contract (if not sooner), certainly Sharpe and Irvin would of, they would of not stayed with a small market losing team. Paul was loyalty to this franchise and certainly contributed to two playoff appearances and a division title, considering the circumstances, Paul ended up being the right choice.

[maryjanewatson]

Originally Posted by KiffininCanton

I hate to pile on someone who took a lot of time and research but it does seem the poster gives the QB's the benefit of the doubt more than any other position. Plus as pointed out the poster happens to stop at 2000 when there was a lot of bust the years before than.

What do you mean, benefit of the doubt? I called Carr and Leftwich busts. Not many would do that.

I explained why I stopped at 2000 - if I'm going to go back ten years, I might as well go back 20 years or 30 years.

Besides, the point is the same even if you want to dispute my take on a guy here or there - we're roughly as likely to get a bust with a receiver as most other positions. I had one goal in mind - finding out if receivers busted more than other positions we were considering. They do not. You want to dispute a specific player or two, go for it. It doesn't change that conclusion. The whole "receivers bust more" idea is unsound.

[KiffininCanton]

Originally Posted by maryjanewatson

What do you mean, benefit of the doubt? I called Carr and Leftwich busts. Not many would do that.

I explained why I stopped at 2000 - if I'm going to go back ten years, I might as well go back 20 years or 30 years.

Besides, the point is the same even if you want to dispute my take on a guy here or there - we're roughly as likely to get a bust with a receiver as most other positions. I had one goal in mind - finding out if receivers busted more than other positions we were considering. They do not. You want to dispute a specific player or two, go for it. It doesn't change that conclusion. The whole "receivers bust more" idea is unsound.

I would say Vick for a #1 is a bust, Grossman, and even Pennington were bust too. But come to think of it is beside the point, your main point is right, "WR are a bust a lot more often" is blown way out of proportion.

[Acacius]

Originally Posted by KiffininCanton

I would say Vick for a #1 is a bust, Grossman, and even Pennington were bust too.

*boggle*

By what metric is Pennington a bust?

[BucFanFrom1976]

I would like to see these stats based on top 10 picks for at least 10-15 years and starting at least 5 years ago. Too many players in the last 5 years the book is still out on and a top ten pick is a lot different than a pick in the teens or later.