How Detroit Trading Down in Unlikely.....

[cwsloan]

OK, after reading a bunch of informative and entertaining posts concering picks 1-4, I decided to crunch some numbers on the draft value chart. Grant it, not all teams use it to an exact science, but for argument's sake, I am going to use it as a guide for this post.

David Carr's release makes me a little weary, but if I had to bet, I am still going to say that Oakland takes Russell at this point w/ the #1, or at least I am still hoping.

That leaves Detroit at #2. I originally thought they were in the driver's seat and can make a king's ransom off of this pick this year, but after looking at the value chart, I am not entirely convinced that they won't be picking here themselves on draft day. Here's why:

1. They could use all the top prospects. Quinn would be the QB of the future, CJ would look great opposite Roy Williams and Joe Thomas is an OL that anyone in the top 10 could use.

2. Finding a dancing partner. Nobody goes up for the #2 unless they feel it's a can't miss deal. There are plenty of clubs that would love to have CJ, Peterson, Quinn, or Thomas on their rosters, but in order to go that high you have to have ammunition and this is where I see the doubts for Detroit moving down.

Who would be interested in the #2 and why?
Cleveland - for either Thomas, Quinn, or Peterson
Tampa - for Calvin Johnson
Arizona - for Joe Thomas
Minnesota - for Quinn or CJ
Atlanta - for CJ
Miami - for Quinn
Buffalo - for Peterson
Denver - for CJ

There could be a darkhorse in there somewhere w/ a lot of picks and little cap room like NE, but lets just say the ones that are on this board are the likely partners to trade with.

What teams would need to get remotely close to on the draft boards is a total of 2600 points, the worth of the #2 pick.

1. Denver - they wanted Peterson but got Travis Henry; they wanted CJ but look, they have the 21st, the 56th, the 70th, and the 87th picks racking up to 1545 points on the value chart, just a little over half the value of the #2. Nope.

2. Atlanta - they want CJ period, but they would have to give up the 8th, the 39th, and the 44th overall to get him. That would leave them w/ a third still. I dont think they give up all that when they can get Landry.

3. Miami is about to get Trent Green so if that happens, take them off the list completely, but they would have to give up all of their 1st day picks and still wouldnt get to 2600 points. They have a #1, two #2's, and a #3, equaling 2490 points. They stay put.

4. Minnesota - Their 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rounder equate to 2230 points. I think Brad Childress would say no one player is that good, b/c he's so stuck on "team players" and not superstars. He would rather have depth I think. But again, I dont see Detroit and Minnesota, two divisional foes making this deal anyway. Minney would need to work w/ Cleveland if CJ were still there.

5. Arizona - If they want Thomas enough, Detroit would only fall to #5, and I think Det. MAY consider going from 2 to 5 for Arizona's second. On the value chart that would be 2230 points. IF Arizona had to throw in a 3rd, forget it, which Detroit would probably ask.

6. Tampa Bay - Between two and four is a point total of 800 points. Our two second rounders are worth 830 and our early second and third together is worth 810 points. Our late 2nd and early third combined is worth 520. So I only see this if we give up or early 2nd and third or our late 2nd, our 3rd, and our 4th, which WE wouldnt do. Small possibility here if Gruden really wants CJ.

7. Clevleand - this is a done deal only if Phil Savage wants Quinn bad enough, b/c Millen wouldnt mind taking the third guy in exchange for Cleveland's 2nd or third rounder. Otherwise Clev. can go w/ Peterson or Thomas if Detroit or anyone takes Quinn at #2. I think this pick is in the driver's seat more than anyone in the draft.

These scenarions assume no players already on rosters get traded too, but you have to be a decent player to be in this deal and in looking at Miami, Atlanta, Minnesota, Arizona, Tampa Bay, or Cleveland, I dont see a player that stands out to me that could be invovled that they would send to Detroit.

So I am not afraid of Detroit's pick nor Oakland's at the moment. It's Cleveland's we need to be concerned over guys.

Thoughts....

I think that the Lions will probably be stuck at #2 because of what it would take for any team to move up to #2.

And I believe that Calvin Johnson won't be on the board at #2.

[buc4evr]

Originally Posted by WildCats

I think that the Lions will probably be stuck at #2 because of what it would take for any team to move up to #2.

And I believe that Calvin Johnson won't be on the board at #2.

You are probably right , there is so much hype on this guy right now he's the second coming..... Oakland may sign Carr and the Lions are reported to have a great interest in Trent Green. If either one of these QB's sign then it's probably a lock that Johnson will go 1st or 2nd. Millen would have a lot of support drafting Johnson if he signs Green at QB. Gruden would be smart to start looking at other players in the draft.

[maryjanewatson]

Originally Posted by buc4evr

You are probably right , there is so much hype on this guy right now he's the second coming..... Oakland may sign Carr and the Lions are reported to have a great interest in Trent Green. If either one of these QB's sign then it's probably a lock that Johnson will go 1st or 2nd. Millen would have a lot of support drafting Johnson if he signs Green at QB. Gruden would be smart to start looking at other players in the draft.

I don't think Millen signing 54 year old Trent Green to augment 52 year old Jon Kitna would mean that everyone in Detroit is going to suddenly become overjoyed about a 4th WR in 5 years. Besides, Green to the Dolphins seems like a formality at this point.

IMHO, the Raiders could go either way (although I still think it'll be Russell) and it'll be either Quinn or Thomas holding up the Lions jersey - my money is on Quinn. At which point, the Browns will take Thomas or Peterson and drinks are on me.

Originally Posted by maryjanewatson

IMHO, the Raiders could go either way (although I still think it'll be Russell) and it'll be either Quinn or Thomas holding up the Lions jersey - my money is on Quinn. At which point, the Browns will take Thomas or Peterson and drinks are on me.

Don't go to Vegas. Quinn will only see Detroit from visiting teams point of view. Their OC specializes in taking late round nobody's and making them into quality NFL QBs and the Harrington wounds are probably still fresh. Not only that, but Millen knows he can't wait on a rookie. He needs to win now.

Lions first round pick?
DE Gaines Adams

[TBChucky]

I agree with Wildcats. I think Marinelli cant wait to get some new, quality talent on the D line. I think they would prefer to trade to #4 because they`re confident that
G Adams will still be there. I know they need a QB, but he had a good point about Mike Martz too. I hear they like Drew Stanton a lot and he should be in there reach.

In my opinion, I believe Oakland will draft Russell. Detriot would probably love to trade down here, but stay in the top 5. However, there might not be a trade partner. So, if Detriot stays at #2, I can't see them tying up more first round $alary in the receiver position(R. Williams, M. Williams). Even if CJ had wings( and he probably does) I see Detriot taking LT Thomas or QB Quinn #2. Don't forget, the DE's and S's are deep this year and Detriot picks early in every round of the draft.

[CPT_FEAR]

This is what i always said. It's too expensive to trade up with Detroit.

But i also don't think Arizona could get into consideration for Detroit, because Quinn, Russell, Johnson and Thomas will propably be off the board and they won't get enough compensation out of the #5 pick, as so they will give up the opportunity to sign either Thomas, Quinn or Russell.

[cwsloan]

CBS Sportsline mock draft says their "sources" say that its a 50-50 chance they will trade the 2nd pick...

Who in the hell can give them what they want? I just dont buy it. In my opinion, Cleveland is really the only other team, or us.

Atlanta can do it, but I dont think they will unless they are afraid Landry, Okoye, and Johnson will all be gone by pick 8 and I think they will land Okoye or Landry at 8.

Nobody else has enough ammunition here guys.....UNLESS......they take less than what its worth and I dont see that happening either.....

Watch for Cleveland's pick...not Detroit's....

[BearLandBucFan]

the whole math is screwed because of the value chart

you have to modify the chart... it will take a decent amount more of point value for any team below #5 for sure to move up

[bravesfan99]

I still say Clev is more likely to trade down as they can move all he all down to 7 or 8 and still get peterson