Why The Bucs Will go 10 - 6......

[superdave]

There has been much ink spilled about Jon Gruden recently here on the board about his qualifications to coach the team, and in what direction the Bucs will be headed this season.

While I certainly will be adding my thoughts to the official predictions thread that the esteemed Chronic will post soon, I wanted to open the dam up to some initial thoughts why I think that the Bucs this year will go 10 - 6.

#1) The schedule: we have a very favorable schedule this year, as our home games feature teams that are either struggling to improve (Arizona, Tennessee, Washington), or teams that we have a payback factor involved (St. Louis, NO, Carolina). I think that we should go 6 - 2 at home, with our losses at home coming from Jacksonville (we cannot defend against their run game) and Carolina (they seem to have our number).

#2) Our away schedule is also favorable to us in some respects. Seattle is rebuilding, and facing them the first week will be good for us, and in week 4 at Carolina, we historically seem to play well up there. Indy will be a loss for us, however, Detroit is a struggling franchise, as is Houston in week 13 . We own Atlanta in Atlanta, and maybe Vick will be in so much dog fighting trouble that the Falcons will be in such a state of disarry come November that we will continue our dominance over them. N.O. away always seems tough, and even though San Francisco is up and coming, our West coast trips usually seem to fall short. Scratching out a 4 and 4 road record does not seem so far fetched.

#3) The debate continues as to whether or not the Bucs have upgraded the impact positions this year. While I want a Super Bowl contending team each and every year, evaluating those positions tells me that we have gotten better, maybe not as good as some have wanted us to, but we have not remained status quo. A + 4 improvement is better than a zero improvement, and while some demand + 40 improvement, reality is, what it is.

Jeff Garcia has upgraded our QB position.

Luke Pettigoat has upgraded our OL position.

Cato June has upgraded our Linebacking corps.

There is no denying these facts. There are other players that have been signed that will hopefully pan out and add to the mix, and we also have significant players coming off 'bad' seasons, namely Clayton, and Carnell Williams who hopefully will come out of the gates firing with something to prove.

And maybe, just maybe, we will use Alstott a bit more now that Gruden is showing some signs of embracing the change many of us have been screaming for.

Drop your bombs below.

[Cadillac Kid 22]

Reasons we will NOT go 10-6:

1) Our team is a year older. Derrick Brooks will be slowed down even more. Barber will show signs of age. Simeon won't have a great burst off the line, because of age.

2) Many players are coming off of serious injuries. Simms, Rice, Kelly are all coming off of season ending injuries, and we cannot expect them to return to usuall form.

3) Our O-line, while talented, still needs a year to gel. Expect Garcia to be heavily pressured, something he was not used to playing in Philly.

4) Our WR corps is weak. Clayton is injury prone, and inconsistant. Galloway will start slowing down, which leaves Stovall as the only WR for the future.

5) Missed tackles. Last year our team missed more tackles than i have ever seen them do. We did not help this with the addition of Cato June. Although Cato will help us with depth, he will not be a force this season.

6) Our safeties. We have two inconsistant players, and an unproven rookie. Yikes.

7) We have Gruden's playcalling. Expect way more pass than run. Caddy will be underused yet again.

[LongwoodBucsFan]

the bucs have good players but the reason why there going to be 10-6 is because John Gurden is a terible coach.

[Pewterslimsme]

You know it's not actually ink right?

[superdave]

I will go one at a time.....

Originally Posted by Cadillac Kid 22

Reasons we will NOT go 10-6:

1) Our team is a year older. Derrick Brooks will be slowed down even more. Barber will show signs of age. Simeon won't have a great burst off the line, because of age.

so is every other team. and Simeon will be better because he had a whole year to rest his legs. In the NFL, that is huge.

2) Many players are coming off of serious injuries. Simms, Rice, Kelly are all coming off of season ending injuries, and we cannot expect them to return to usuall form.

see above post. rest from the wear and tear side is huge.

3) Our O-line, while talented, still needs a year to gel. Expect Garcia to be heavily pressured, something he was not used to playing in Philly.

we hear this arguement every year, and I am sick of it. GEL NOW!!

4) Our WR corps is weak. Clayton is injury prone, and inconsistant. Galloway will start slowing down, which leaves Stovall as the only WR for the future.

They always say that about Galloway, and it never happens, like Jerry Rice. Clayton, however, is an X factor, no doubt about it.

5) Missed tackles. Last year our team missed more tackles than i have ever seen them do. We did not help this with the addition of Cato June. Although Cato will help us with depth, he will not be a force this season.

Cato LED the Colts in tackles last season, where is all this coming from? He is a beast and is an upgrade. Have you forgotten about the playoff run last year where the Colts bottled up run offenses?

6) Our safeties. We have two inconsistant players, and an unproven rookie. Yikes.

Agree with you here. A couple of bombs down the middle, and we could be toast.

7) We have Gruden's playcalling. Expect way more pass than run. Caddy will be underused yet again.

The offensive genius better come up with some new wrinkles or else.

[superdave]

Originally Posted by Pewterslimsme

You know it's not actually ink right?

my bubble has burst. anybody know a good shrink?

no, I won't call PMI (he, he)

[superdave]

Originally Posted by LongwoodBucsFan

the bucs have good players but the reason why there going to be 10-6 is because John Gurden is a terible coach.

are you age 10 like another poster on the board is?

[DinoBravo'sDad]

Originally Posted by Cadillac Kid 22

Reasons we will NOT go 10-6:

1) Our team is a year older. Derrick Brooks will be slowed down even more. Barber will show signs of age. Simeon won't have a great burst off the line, because of age.

Barber doesn't have to play much man-to-man, so age won't affect him as much when he is mostly relying on discipline, instincts, and sure tackling.

2) Many players are coming off of serious injuries. Simms, Rice, Kelly are all coming off of season ending injuries, and we cannot expect them to return to usuall form.

Since when is Simms starting? Also, Rice has one of the strictest workout regimens in the NFL, which keeps him very durable.

3) Our O-line, while talented, still needs a year to gel. Expect Garcia to be heavily pressured, something he was not used to playing in Philly.

With Petitgout replacing one of the worst starting LTs in recent memory, I can pretty much guarantee some noticeable improvement. This is, if he stays healthy.

4) Our WR corps is weak. Clayton is injury prone, and inconsistant. Galloway will start slowing down, which leaves Stovall as the only WR for the future.

If you noticed the past two seasons, Clayton didn't have much of a chance to get in rhythm, because of the two TE/one WR sets. Gruden will likely open things up with his trust in Garcia, and Clayton will have more opportunities to relive some of his rookie year exploits.

5) Missed tackles. Last year our team missed more tackles than i have ever seen them do. We did not help this with the addition of Cato June. Although Cato will help us with depth, he will not be a force this season.


6) Our safeties. We have two inconsistant players, and an unproven rookie. Yikes.

They will look better with a much improved pass rush.

7) We have Gruden's playcalling. Expect way more pass than run. Caddy will be underused yet again.

Like in 2005? Gruden likes to run the ball unless the situation begs for being one-dimensional. And yes, the Giants' game is one sad exception. This unfortunately won't happen if the defense keeps giving up scores and we have to play catch up.

I see 8-8 or 9-7, myself.

[superdave]

Originally Posted by DinoBravo'sDad

Like in 2005? Gruden likes to run the ball unless the situation begs for being one-dimensional. And yes, the Giants' game is one sad exception. This unfortunately won't happen if the defense keeps giving up scores and we have to play catch up.

I see 8-8 or 9-7, myself.

I will say that there are way to many potholes that Gruden has a chance to fall in, WAY TO MANY. That being said, if we can score first, we seem to play with a greater sense of urgency.

When we get behind, we get VERY one dimensional.

[zpanther]

Originally Posted by Cadillac Kid 22

Reasons we will NOT go 10-6:


7) We have Gruden's playcalling. Expect way more pass than run. Caddy will be underused yet again.

You made some excellent points ie Brooks and those coming off of injuries.

7 has me confused. I am not disagreeing with the statement. Last year it seemed that Gruden pretty much abandoned the run. I suspect that some of it had to do with the Oline and as a result Caddies ineffectiveness. However, I still feel that Gruden was too quick to quick to give up on the run. I cannot understand why that was........even with the aforementioned problems. You cannot afford to become one dimensional and that is especially true with our quarterback situation as it was. Gruden did a very poor job of calling plays last year.

The reason I say it has me confused is that Gruden's history as an OC in Philly and Head Coach /OC in Oakland was his penchant for staying with the run. In fact, he was critisized for that while in Oakland.

During our Super Bowl run and in 2005 he stayed with the run game and was very effective. It doesn't matter who is calling the plays, we have to establish the run game. JMO

[UCLABUCSFAN]

Originally Posted by LongwoodBucsFan

the bucs have good players but the reason why there going to be 10-6 is because John Gurden is a terible coach.

So we're going to go 10 - 6 because we have a terrible coach? Makes perfect sense.

Seattle rebuilding??????

[LongwoodBucsFan]

Originally Posted by UCLABUCSFAN

So we're going to go 10 - 6 because we have a terrible coach? Makes perfect sense.

Maybe you didn't here the GOOD PLAYERS part.

[UCLABUCSFAN]

Originally Posted by LongwoodBucsFan

Maybe you didn't here the GOOD PLAYERS part.

Well you said that, but you said the REASON we are going to win is because Gruden is a terrible coach. Read what you said.

[superdave]

Originally Posted by NevadaBucFan

Seattle rebuilding??????

Alexander's foot has not totally healed, and they lost quite a few players to free agency. There LT was one big loss to start with.

[DinoBravo'sDad]

Originally Posted by superdave

Alexander's foot has not totally healed, and they lost quite a few players to free agency. There LT was one big loss to start with.

I think you meant their LG. Other than that, good point.

[JudgeDredd]

Wow, this post seems to be very popular.

Originally Posted by Cadillac Kid 22

Reasons we will NOT go 10-6:

1) Our team is a year older. Derrick Brooks will be slowed down even more. Barber will show signs of age. Simeon won't have a great burst off the line, because of age.
Brooks, yes. He's slowing down. At least for our system, which demands quickness, he is. Rice got hurt, yes, but we also have a LOT more rotation on the line this year. He'll be taking on less snaps. Barber hasn't even begun to show his age, he's still very very good. How do you just "predict" a player will start showing their age this year.

2) Many players are coming off of serious injuries. Simms, Rice, Kelly are all coming off of season ending injuries, and we cannot expect them to return to usuall form.
Simms won't be starting, no problem there, Rice will be spelled plenty, and Kelly is expected to be back to full form.


3) Our O-line, while talented, still needs a year to gel. Expect Garcia to be heavily pressured, something he was not used to playing in Philly.
Why? The right side, C Wade RG Joseph RT Trueblood, have already had a year together and have developed good chemistry. Right side looks solid. The only worry point is LG which will either be Sears or Davis, either way LG will be surrounded by smart solid vets in Luke P and Wade and shouldn't have much problem. It's not like in years pass where its 3 or 4 new guys gelling next to each other lost.

4) Our WR corps is weak. Clayton is injury prone, and inconsistant. Galloway will start slowing down, which leaves Stovall as the only WR for the future.
Again, "will starting slowing down?" How do you know this? I want your crystal ball. He hasn't slowed down yet. He's fine and still very explosive. Stovall should step up some, that only leave Clayton as a giant "?", the first good point you've made.

5) Missed tackles. Last year our team missed more tackles than i have ever seen them do. We did not help this with the addition of Cato June. Although Cato will help us with depth, he will not be a force this season.
Right. I mean he was only top 5 in tackles, #2 in INTs for a LB, and a perfect glove-snug fit for our system. Yeah, he won't be a force....

6) Our safeties. We have two inconsistant players, and an unproven rookie. Yikes.
No debate that. I guess even a broken clock is right twice a day.

7) We have Gruden's playcalling. Expect way more pass than run. Caddy will be underused yet again.
Because Gruden is Andy Reid.... If we're as bad as last year and play from behind almost all the time, than yes- more pass than run (duh!). But if we're like we were in 2005 and can go into the 4th with the lead, Caddy can pound it out like he does.

By far the worse thing in that post was how you just "assume" a player will "start slowing down" out of no where.

[superdave]

Originally Posted by DinoBravo'sDad

I think you meant their LG. Other than that, good point.

I did, and thank you for fact checking, props to you.

[superdave]

Originally Posted by JudgeDredd

Wow, this post seems to be very popular.




By far the worse thing in that post was how you just "assume" a player will "start slowing down" out of no where.

while Gruden has been handing out ammunition to all and placing a bull's eye on his back, and asked people to aim, there seems to be a pendulem swing a bit to far off to the left. he has many things to work on, but some of these asumptions are just silly notions.

[tampabayfan]

I say the only way the Bucs see a 10 in their record is if its on the L side. Sorry Dave, but you are asking for a miracle.

[AMERICAN MUSCLE]

Originally Posted by superdave

Alexander's foot has not totally healed, and they lost quite a few players to free agency. There LT was one big loss to start with.

You're a freaking gomer dude. Do you just make **** up and post it? There is plenty of posters on this board that know football. Alexander will be 100% by TC... not even a ? Who is this LT you speak of? Did you make that up? They have added far more players than they lost. I don't see rebuilding in Seattle and I don't think they ever will. They have smart owners with a good FO.

[JudgeDredd]

Originally Posted by tampabayfan

I say the only way the Bucs see a 10 in their record is if its on the L side. Sorry Dave, but you are asking for a miracle.

[superdave]

Originally Posted by THE DYNASTY

You're a freaking gomer dude. Do you just make **** up and post it? There is plenty of posters on this board that know football. Alexander will be 100% by TC... not even a ? Who is this LT you speak of? Did you make that up? They have added far more players than they lost. I don't see rebuilding in Seattle and I don't think they ever will. They have smart owners with a good FO.

since you can't read goofball, I said it was the LG they lost. Also, Alexander's foot has NOT totally healed (so says John Clayton from ESPN). Hasselback had numerous injuries last year, and the defense is suspect. They also lost malcontent D. Jackson aas well.

Pyle on line 3 for you, Gomer.

[bucschick]

Originally Posted by tampabayfan

I say the only way the Bucs see a 10 in their record is if its on the L side. Sorry Dave, but you are asking for a miracle.

My initial reaction is to agree. That said, breaking it down game by game makes things look a little more optimistic. IF the defense is back where it needs to be and the offense manages to be on the high end of mediocre (which isn't okay, but it might need to be enough), then the Bucs could do relatively well.

The wild card, however, is the team itself. If they come out of the gate looking anything like they did at the beginning of last season...well, Gruden will be out of a job and the Bucs will be resigned to another losing season. I don't know if I can muster enough faith in Gruden to believe that the Bucs will be good this year, so I'm just going to hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

[AMERICAN MUSCLE]

Originally Posted by superdave

since you can't read goofball, I said it was the LG they lost. Also, Alexander's foot has NOT totally healed (so says John Clayton from ESPN). Hasselback had numerous injuries last year, and the defense is suspect. They also lost malcontent D. Jackson aas well.

Pyle on line 3 for you, Gomer.

Originally Posted by superdave

Alexander's foot has not totally healed, and they lost quite a few players to free agency. There LT was one big loss to start with.

Oh is that right sunshine.... I think you might be one of the smartest people on the planet. Telling me I can't read, yet you don't even know what it is you wrote.

His foot will be fine. He has had plenty of time to recover. Hasselback was injured yes. The question is... What the hell makes you think that humans don't recover from injuries? I can understand being less optimistic if he tore both of his knees up, or something major like a neck injury, but we are talking about being banged up. I'd also like to mention that all NFL players get the absolute best medical care you can get.

I won't even respond to your D. Jackson and suspect D comment because you have no idea.... ( again)

Pyle on 3 way with W. Bush for ya Gomer.

[repeatSB37]

Originally Posted by Cadillac Kid 22

Reasons we will NOT go 10-6:

1) Our team is a year older. Derrick Brooks will be slowed down even more. Barber will show signs of age. Simeon won't have a great burst off the line, because of age.

2) Many players are coming off of serious injuries. Simms, Rice, Kelly are all coming off of season ending injuries, and we cannot expect them to return to usuall form.

3) Our O-line, while talented, still needs a year to gel. Expect Garcia to be heavily pressured, something he was not used to playing in Philly.

4) Our WR corps is weak. Clayton is injury prone, and inconsistant. Galloway will start slowing down, which leaves Stovall as the only WR for the future.

5) Missed tackles. Last year our team missed more tackles than i have ever seen them do. We did not help this with the addition of Cato June. Although Cato will help us with depth, he will not be a force this season.

6) Our safeties. We have two inconsistant players, and an unproven rookie. Yikes.

7) We have Gruden's playcalling. Expect way more pass than run. Caddy will be underused yet again.

Sorry man, but some of your points are a little weak.

R.B, DB, J.G, will not just all of a sudden not play well because they are a year older. Yes our entire D played not very well last year, but the only one that seemed a little slower was D.B. Thats Ok though, we signed Jun who is one of the most athletic LB in the NFL.

Then you talk about players not playing well because of season ending injuries last year. With the exception of our LG/C Buening (sp ?) every one else is a healthy as they were before the start of the season last year. No one blew out both their knees or anything, they were not that serious of injuries.

Our secondary (especially the safeties) looked bad last year bcause of a lack of pass rush. With a healthy Rice, the addition of Carter, Adams, and Sims should take care of that and I think we will see much better play in the passing gm from our entire secondary and LB group.

As for the missed tackles, those are mental errors and can be corrected with just focusing more. I have faith that they will be corrected this season. Its not like the D all of a sudden forgett how to tackle from previous years.

The O line is more talented, and does need to gel before we see great improvements like you said. But with the addition of L.P and a healthy Dan B, it will be better than last year. Not having to keep Smith to block to help out Davis on the left side will give Our QB an athletic TE for quicker passes to help with the pass rush.

I know we did not run enough last year, but that was more because of the TO early in the games by the offense. In 2005 Gruden ran the ball a lot, and I think with a better line and a smarter QB in Garcia we will have less TO and will run a lot more.

[I'm an 0-26 Survivor]

I expect the Bucs to go undefeated.
At worst, 14-2.

[caddy&clayton]

Good post.



I think we will go 8-8, but we could make the playoffs if the NFC sucks again. I would not be surprised, though, if we get a couple of lucky bounces and win another game or 2. Also, don't forget that the last place team in the South always comes back to win the division the next year.

[Cadillac Kid 22]

Originally Posted by DinoBravo'sDad

Like in 2005? Gruden likes to run the ball unless the situation begs for being one-dimensional. And yes, the Giants' game is one sad exception. This unfortunately won't happen if the defense keeps giving up scores and we have to play catch up.

I see 8-8 or 9-7, myself.

I see 8-8 as well. Just not 10-6.

[Cadillac Kid 22]

Originally Posted by tampabayfan

I say the only way the Bucs see a 10 in their record is if its on the L side. Sorry Dave, but you are asking for a miracle.

Thank you! At least some people are realistic here...