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#1
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Leeroy's Round One Mock (Long)
Since I'm a know it all, I thought I'd engage in the NFL know it all's March past-time, the mock draft. Plus I have office hours and I'm bored to death. You'll note I undervalue the cornerbacks - that's because there are so mayn of them, I expect teams to look for value in the second and third rounds. Plus, the illegal contact rules devalue the position, as I've noted elsewhere. Also, Aaron Rodgers will fall because there simply aren't many teams with huge quarterback holes. Trades could change that, but I'm not going to speculate on that. Here we go.
1. SF: Alex Smith, QB WHY? He has everything you look for in a West Coast thrower - accuracy, smarts, running ability. Mike Nolan will have a few years to get things turned around, so he can afford to groom Smith. And the overtures about trading Tim Rattay combined with the Niners not signing anyone at the position indicate a QB will be the pick. His impressive workouts and mobility (plus the fear of Jeff Tedford quarterbacks) give him the edge over Aaron Rodgers. 2. MIA: Ronnie Brown, RB WHY? Recent workouts have made him the clear top runner in the class. Nick Saban plans on playing cloud of dust keepaway, which doesn't fit either Lamar Gordon or Travis Minor. Derrick Johnson could be the pick here, but Ronnie Brown is the smart money. If you could draft the next LaDanian Tomlinson, how could you NOT, especially in this kinda offense? 3. CLE: Derrick Johnson, LB WHY? Aaron Rodgers is the favorite here, but Trent Dilfer gives Crennel some options. He doesn't have the 3-4 bodies he needs, and as a defensive coach he will likely look to that side of the ball first. I'd look for Johnson to immediately become the focus of the defense and local product Charlie Frye to be the second rounder. 4. CHI: Braylon Edwards, WR WHY? Despite the Mike Williams fetish around here, Edwards is a much more complete prospect, and he better fits Lovie Smith's faux KC offense. Releasing David Terrell is the smoke to this fire. One of the runners could be the pick here if Lovie has faith in Berrian, Gage, or Wade, but Edwards is probably too ideal to pass up. 5. TB: Cedric Benson, RB WHY? I know I'll get the most feedback about this, but I have sound reasoning. First, Gruden has made his fetish for productive players clear, and Benson is the most productive player in this draft. Second, we haven't heard a word about him, which is a dead giveaway around here. Third, it would be the kind of quirky, unexpected move Gruden would love, because when it works out we'd all get to talk about how smart Jon Gruden is. 6. TEN: Mike Williams, WR WHY? I realize Adam Jones, Antrel Rolle, and Alex Barron better fit the needs of this team, but I have a hunch, and it's name is Norm Chow. My guess is Chow has been in Fisher's ear about this kid since he got the job. I wouldn't be surprised if Chow has convinced him by now. Besides, you can't teach the kind of size and difference making potential Mike Williams has. 7. MIN: Shawne Merriman, DE WHY? David Pollack could be the pick also, but I went with Merriman because he is this draft's quickest climber. Udeze has the very early markings of a bust, and a pure pass rusher is the one thing the defense lacks. I think Merriman will be a stud, and he just looks like a Viking to me. 8. ARZ: Carnell Williams, RB WHY? The only reason the trade for Travis Henry hasn't gone through is because Denny Green prefers quick, shifty, Michael Bennett-Robert Smith types. Hello Cadillac, hello playoffs. 9. WAS: Adam Jones, CB WHY? I'm torn between David Pollack, Rolle, and Jones with this pick, but ultimately go with Jones because Gibbs has been sniffing around the corners more than any other coach, and because Gregg Williams can manufacture a pass rush with his schemes. 10. DET: David Pollack, DE WHY? It'll be him or Barron. I go with Pollack because he gives the defense the intense, blue collar type it's lack since Chris Speilman left a decade or so ago. A pass rusher will make the young but talented back seven much better. 11. DAL: Mark Clayton, WR WHY? There are many ways Parcells could go with this pick. Clayton is his kind of player - tough and smart. He could look for some parts for his 3-4 scheme here also, but nobody fits well enough to merit this pick. Plus, he needs someone with the skills to compliment plodding Keyshawn, aging Glenn (who Clayton reminds me of quite a bit, but with a great attitude), and butterfingered Morgan. 12. SD: Antrel Rolle, CB WHY? For one, he's a great value here. Second, Sammy Davis is a bust and Jammer needs help. Barron is a possibility also, with Oben aging, but the Chargers did such a great job with a no-name line last year I bet Marty will look for value later on. Troy Williamson is a possibility, but the receivers have some potential also. 13. HOU: Troy Williamson, WR WHY? They desperately need someone opposite Andre Johnson. I expect LT project Seth Wand to come into his own next year. A defensive end to convert to OLB is a possibility also, but they already have a project there by the name of Jason Babin. 14. CAR: Heath Miller, TE WHY? Imagine how much more efficient Delhomme will be with an honest to goodness receiving TE? Plus, he's a light's out blocker, which will help the running game. The signing of Ken Lucas alleviates the need for a corner, and no receiver is worth this pick. Barron could go here also, but his finesse style doesn't fit the team mentality, and there are no receivers left on my board worth the pick. 15. KC: Thomas Davis, S WHY? The secondary is a mess, and this is the rare draft where it's easier to find an impact corner than an impact safety. 16. NO: Travis Johnson, DT WHY? Jon Sullivan was a bust, pure and simple. The lack of a defensive tackle who can rush the passer negates all that ability they have at end. Carlos Rodgers is a possibility here also. 17. CIN: Eramus James, DE WHY? Though I know they'd prefer Johnson or Davis, with those guys off the board, I'd look for them to try and improve a stagnant pass rush, and a guy once considered a sure top six pick is a way to do it. 18. MIN: Alex Barron, OT WHY? Finally, he will go here. Right Tackle has been a problem spot since Korey Stringer passed on, and this would be a brilliant value pick. 19. STL: Carlos Rodgers, CB WHY? Great workouts moved him up to the clear third best corner in this draft. You never know what Mike Martz will do, though. 20. DAL: Marcus Spears, DE WHY? The kind of DE you can build a 3-4 around, and the kind the Boys desperately need. Plus, he can move inside when they shift to the 4-3 with little dropoff. 21. JAX: Khalif Barnes, OT WHY? Mike Pearson may never fully recover from his injuries, and there are no receivers worth this pick. They addressed DE with Reggie Hayward, and Mathis looks like a keeper at corner. Jammal Brown could be the pick also. 22. BAL: Chris Spencer, OG WHY? Again, no wideouts worth the pick. Billick seems happy with his defensive line, and there are no needs elsewhere on offense or defense. Chris Spencer is the clear cut top interior lineman after his pro day, and would immensely help Jamal Lewis. Again, Jammal Brown could be the pick. 23. SEA: Matt Roth, DE WHY? He's Grant Winstrom, minus the years and the injuries. Intense, hard working, he's a great value here, he's a Ray Rhodes kinda guy, and he fills a desperate need. Ciatrick Fiason could be the pick if the Hawks are convinced they can't lock up Shaun Alexander long term. 24. GB: Aaron Rodgers, QB WHY? I know, this is a freefall. Unless someone trades up to get him - like the Packers - I simply don't see two teams in the top 23 who really need a quarterback. And despite being one of the best in this class, ANY other year he'd be lucky to be the third best. Antaaj Hawthorne and Dan Cody are possibilities also. 25. DEN: Chris Spencer, WR WHY? Lotsa ways they could go, really. It'll be him or Jammal Brown, I think, but with Rod Smith almost old enough to be a Buccaneers and Ashlie Leslie not developing, they really need a deep threat here. Spencer has elite ability but a lousy attitude, like another lanky wideout who grew up in West Virginia I remember... 26. NYJ: Jammal Brown, OT WHY? I did have Justin Miller here, but the Jets are desperate for a tackle after losing Kareem McKenzie to their stadium mates. Brown would be a great value here, and after three plus years starting for the Sooners, he could play RT right now. 27. ATL: Reggie Brown, WR WHY? A few reasons. For one, he's a hometown guy. Two, he's a complete wide receiver - good size, speed, and productivitiy in a major conference. Third, he'll make cutting Price much easier. Plus, I don't see any major needs on this club. 28. SD: Darryl Blackstock, LB WHY? He's the kind of guy a 3-4 defense craves - big, quick, athletic. He'd be an instant ROY sleeper. Coach Al Groh compared him to LT, who he also coached. DeMarcus Ware from Troy State is a possibility for all the same reasons. 29. IND: Barrett Ruud, LB WHY? The Colts have more needs than any other elite club. Defensive back is the fashionable pick, but defensive backs can be covered up in a good cover two. Ruud is a Dungy dream - quick, tough, hardworking, and a great guy. Rob Morris is at the end of his tenure, and Ruud would not only instantly improve the zone passing D but is much stouter against the run. DeMarcus Ware is a possibility as a gimmick pass rusher, which is a great way to cover up a defense's weaknesses. 30. PIT: Justin Miller, CB WHY? Cornerback is the one ugly problem position for this team. Miller is a great value here. Seems like a good fit. Elton Brown is a possibility too. 31. PHI: Demarcus Ware, LB WHY? A prototype for the agressive Jim Johnson 46 - a havoc machine. He would shore up the team's only glaring weakness, OLB. I am convinced either he or Fiason will be the pick. 32. NE: Kevin Burnett, LB WHY? This is one of those best available luxury picks. With Bruschi's future uncertain and Willie McGinest approaching 60 years old, Burnett would make sense, and he lacks the baggage of Crowder or Odell Thurman. |
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#2
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everybody's mock that has either rodgers or smith slide out of top three has him going all the way to 24th to GB. i can guarantee a qb that has no. 1 possibility will not slide 23 spots. somebody will trade up for him or suprise you by picking him. i don;t see dallas skipping on him twice. ALSO kc, no,det, wash, or balt could be suprised to see such a phenonemial prospect fall into their laps. those 4 team;s qb situations are average at best.
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#3
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I think that mock puts too much weight on need and not enough on BPA.
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#4
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As for Mike Williams "sliding" to us a five, most big boards - TSN, Sportsweekly, PFW - Don't have him as as one of the top ten right now. And how can ANYONE be so darn certain who we'll take? Did ANYONE call Mike Clayton last year? All I heard was "If Vince Wilfork (DJ Williams...Steven Jackson) is there, there's NO WAY we don't take him. Did you call Clayton? Did anybody even MENTION Clayton? Think outside the box.
As for Aaron Rodgers, I fully expect someone to trade up and take him before 24. But how are you supposed to guess about that? I worked with what we know. What we know is that there are 22 teams out of the top 23 with much bigger needs than quarterback, and two QBs valued that high. When somebody trades up, I'll change my draft. |
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#5
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#6
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Indeed I had Alex Smith dropping to 25, and everyone complained
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#7
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I really think somebody WILL trade up and take the QB who doesn't go #1, but only the Browns and Cards are REMOTE possibilities to take a QB of the remaining top 23. |
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#8
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Ya, I'm sure that Minnesota won't take a receiver.... and that Chicago and Tenesee both will....
1. SF- Aaron Rogers 2. MIA- Ronnie Brown 3. CLE- Alex Smith 4. CHI- Cedric Benson (definately a RB, Benson fits them better than Caddy) 5. TB- Mike Williams 6. TEN- (honestly, no idea, they have way too many holes) Derrick Johnson 7. Minnesota- Braylon Edwards There you have it, a much more accurate top 7, guaranteed (unless teams trade up or down out of the top 7). I'm honestly, only not 100% sure about 2 things: which RB Chicago will take and who Tennesee will take.
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#9
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I think Romeo Crennel will trust Dilfer while he builds a D (and he will have a shot and Leinart next year anyway). I think Lovie Smith is for some reason associated with power backs, when he's said many times he wants to run a Kansas City horizontal offense. I think I have no clue why everybody and their brother here takes Gruden and his Mike Williams lust at face value after the Clayton pick last year. I think Derrick Johnson is too damn good to fall out of the top three. I think if Braylon Edwards falls to seven the Vikings will snap him up, but after his workouts there's zero chance of that. Who knows?? |
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#10
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Chicago needs a receiver more than a RB. Plus Edwards is better than Benson.
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#11
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If you're going to not get a QB this year because you MIGHT have the top pick next year, that's pretty poor planning...
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#12
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The only reasons I don't think we take a running back is because we run a back by committie approach so paying all that money to one back doesn't happen there. Take one in the second or late first round yeah, but not franchise back location. Unless we change strategy, but I don't think that is happening. Plus Pittman did put up a lot of yards. I don't know if Cadi is a versitial back either? The only times I watched him he wasn't too impressive and I didn't see him blocking or catching. Doesn't mean he didn't do a great job of that in every other game, just never saw him do it myself.
Mike Williams would help to solitify the the passing game. Two key recievers who are just starting out I think would be a dream opportunity. We sort of had an older version with Keenan and Keyshawn, and Jon helped bring in Keenan when we already had Keyshawn so I can see it happening. Also bringing in a local guy helps with PR. Lets face it, first rounders are the stud guys that put people in the seats so you always look for three things in them. Look for helping with what you need, helping with your strategy, and helping put people in seats. I think the one big thing is no way Baltimore passes up on one of the top two QBs if one falls that far. They feel the guy they have now is inadaquite and holding them back. They were even thinking about trading for Brad Johnson to start last year.
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#13
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#14
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Benson fits their o-line nicely, and will be able to take a lot of carries.
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#15
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Excellent read, Leeroy. Thanks. That's what this board needs more of.
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#17
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Gruden would have chosen MW last season had he been there. And he will this season if he'll be there. Quote:
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#18
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As for DJ he is fits in on defense perfectly like a glove. Quote:
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While this draft where the players are not highly valued at the top choosing the BAP usually works becuase more than likely a team in the top ten has multiple needs and the BAP tends to fill that need. Last edited by All_da_way; 03-30-2005 at 10:22 PM.. |
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#19
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I don't.
-You are in the minority. -No one should trust Dilfer. Clevland is in re-building mode. That's right everything has gotta go, and they really need a QB. DJ doesn't fit Crennel's stype defense AT ALL! He's about 50 lbs underweight for it. Dilfer is a caretaker. Crennel won in Cleveland with an effecient quarterback in a good scheme, and I think he would have no qualms about trying it again. Plus, local product Charlie Frye would make more sense (and value) with Derrick Johnson, especially with the fanbase, than would, say Rodgers or Alex Smith, and, say, Odell Thurman. As for Johnson's size, he weighed in at 242 pounds at the combine. His playing weight might be closer to 235 in the NFL, but that is still big enough. -Well,there aren't many small backs that get a lot of carries. Lovie has made it clear that he isn't safisfied with that Thomas and Jones have produced. He wants to be in the top 5 rushing in the league, and with a solid back behind that powerful o-line, he sure can be. I'm not discounting the possibility of Lovie going with a runner at #4, especially after the Muhammed signing. It's simple a judgment call, and Braylon Edwards fills a need, and he's been touted as the #1 overall pick. I think again, the Bears would do better with Braylon Edwards and JJ Arrington, for example, than Carnell Williams and, say Fred Gibson. -Wow, do I totally not understand something about everybody's brother, or is that just bad grammar and spelling?) Gruden would have chosen MW last season had he been there. And he will this season if he'll be there. And you know this because...? Gruden has never taken a guy he's spent his time talking up, not once, in any round, ever. Did you hear WORD ONE about Clayton last year? No. I do not take a word Gruden has said about the prospects into consideration, none. Not a little, not an ounce. -Mostthought that Steven Jackson was too good to fall out of the top 10. No one saw Wilfork falling way past 15 either. Teams choosing in the top 10 are there because they have needs, and they take care of them by using their top picks. There are always players who freefall unexpectedly. Running back is a poor example because teams who have a go-to runner rarely draft another one with their top picks because only one is usually on the field at any given moment. You can have two solid linebackers and still take another. The need argument means less at positions lack that. Derrick Johnson is the BPA available in this draft. He plays the position of interest of the new coach of the Browns, which is also one of their biggest weaknesses. And he is a coach well aware that defensive playmakers and efficient offense wins Superbowls. I did the math, that's all. -No.Vikes still believe he can help their vertical game. They'll trade up to grab him if they need to. I did not take possible trade ups into consideration here, I played the board straight. I could tell you the Saints will conjure up the spirit of Mike Ditka and trade their whole draft for Cedric Benson. If Edwards or Williams are there, the Vikings will take him. If both are there - unlikely as it may be - Edwards would likely be the pick. As the board stands now, I don't think either will be there, and I think they'll look to add the missing piece of the D, and roll the dice with the still formidable receiver corp of Marcus Robinson, Nate Burleson, Kelly Campbell, and Travis Taylor, plus the best three headed RB beast in the league. -I do. Well, now I'm convinced ![]() |
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#20
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I'm actually going to agree with you on the Benson pick. I've had a sneaky feeling about him lately. I mean, in my opinion, I'd like the best pure running back, Cadillac Williams (but he could be gotten a lil later than #5). BUT Gruden's penchanct for production will probably be what points him towards Benson. I think he's definitely gonna try and get some more balance, meaning a RB in the first 2 rounds is highly likely.
I don't buy the running back by committee theory either. It has pretty much always been one primary running back carrying the load. Pittman got 219 carries last year. The next closest was Alstott with 67. That's nowhere close to a committee approach. When we had Pittman and Jones, they had more even carries, but that was because Jones won the job from Pittman. Of Jones' 137 carries, 84 of them came in the final 4 games. (21 carries per game). He also won the job gradually. His good play earned him more playing time until finally he had won the starting job. It would just give us SOOOOO much more balance on offense if we got one of the big three running backs. I realize that Mike Williams is an amazing player but why do we need 3 starting receivers when we don't even have a decent starting running back? |
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#21
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I don't buy the "running back by committee" bunk either. Garner was the man in Oaktown, Wheatley did some short yardage and mop-up. Alstott barely saw the field once it was clear Pittman was the better option. I think the only reason Gruden has always done RB by comittee is because that's what the talent on his teams have dictated. Any one of the big three (except Williams, who might not hold up) would get 320 carries here. |
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#23
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If Torrie Cox continues to develop as a return guy and spot corner, if Will Allen becomes a fixture at FS, if Cooper becomes a starter, if Mahan wins the RG job, I WILL change my tune a bit... As for Cadillac, I don't know what to think. I love his style. He reminds me a T-O-N of Walter Payton and OJ Simpson. Effortless, smooth, poetry in motion. But the lousy blitz pickups, the questionable hands, and the broken bones and small size just make him a HUGE risk with the 5th overall pick, especially with so many great options in rounds 2-4. |
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#24
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Sorry guys; I just don't see those 2 coaches going offense. Lovie and Romeo know they can win with a decent O, and a stellar D.... both will not pass up on DJ! Last edited by TheGhostofDungy; 03-30-2005 at 11:37 PM.. |
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#25
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Last edited by UMiamiBucFan; 03-30-2005 at 11:40 PM.. |
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#26
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One of the worst mock drafts I have seen.
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#28
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Are you mad that your team can't seem to win a championship game even when you host it? Lotta good those 15 regular season wins did for ya. |
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#29
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#30
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It gets old listening to people who have no clue about the history of this franchise preach knowledge they don't have. I will say this though...Your city is just as bad. I was in Heinz Field for the Divisional playoff game wearing a Mean Joe Greene jersey that was loaned to me. (when in Rome...lol) I actually had "Steeler" fans..too many to count talk to me and ask me...Who number 75 was....Comical....The same type of people that wonder who 63 is when I wear my Lee Roy jersey to Ray Jay. The only beating that we were talking about was the one you guys took in the playoffs... ![]() All in good fun... |
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